#10 Arkansas vs #3 Texas Tech: Sweet 16 Odds & Best Bets (3/27)

Coach Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks have danced their way into the Sweet 16 after pulling off two upsets, but now face a very good Texas Tech Red Raiders team this Thursday. The Hogs were two possession underdogs in both the Round of 64 against Kansas and the Round of 32 against St. John’s, and once again are catching 5.5 against Texas Tech.

With Arkansas being the only double digit seed left in the tournament, they are clearly America’s Cinderella team. However, will their ball be spoiled by the Red Raiders of the gritty Big 12? Texas Tech beat UNC Wilmington but failed to cover the 15.5, and then went on to beat Drake by 13, covering the 7.5. They have certainly had the easier path in this tournament, beating the 14 and 11 seed, while the Hogs took down number 7 and number 2, but will that play a role in this game?

Will Arkansas keep their dancing shoes on? Or will Texas Tech send them packing early?

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#10 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders: Sweet 16 Preview

Matchup Information – Arkansas vs Texas Tech

• Venue & Location: Chase Center (San Francisco, CA)
• Date: Thursday, March 27th, 2025
• Tip Off: 10:09pm Eastern
• Broadcast: TBS/truTV

Betting Odds

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Spread

• Arkansas +5.5 (-110)
• Texas Tech -5.5 (-110)

Money Line

• Arkansas +205
• Texas Tech -245

Total

• Over 148 (-112)
• Under 148 (-108)

Will Red Raiders End Hogs’ Cinderella Run?

My problem with Texas Tech is their lack of depth, size, and their injuries. Forward Darrion Williams returned from injury and has put up 30 minutes in their two tourney games, but guard Chance McMilan has not played since 3/13 in the Big 12 Quarterfinals. He is a San Francisco native, and coaches are hoping he returns, but without him, the Red Raiders lose their 3rd leading scorer. More pressure is on the guards to perform, who already play 70% of the minutes, and like I said, this Tech team is undersized compared to the Hogs.

The Red Raiders’ front court consists of 6’6″ Williams, 6’9″ JT Toppin (who leads the team in several categories), and 6’11” senior Federiko Federiko. Williams is already small for a forward, and Toppin will have tons of responsibility on the offensive end of the floor, meaning his energy on the defensive end could be missing.

As for the Hogs, they roll out 6’11” senior Jonas Aidoo, 6’10” junior Trevon Brazile, and have 7’2″ center Zvonimir Ivisic who all put in around 20+ minutes per game, and two are likely on the court at all times. Not to mention Arkansas will also be returning 6’6″ wing Adou Thiero who leads the team in scoring this season. Like I said, the Red Raiders are undersized, and I think it will show in this matchup.

#10 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders Best Bets

Arkansas vs Texas Tech Prediction: Arkansas Wins Outright, Over 148

Best Bets: Arkansas +5.5 (-110) BetOnline

Woo Pig Sooie. Bring out the hog calls as we back Coach Cal on this Cinderella run one more time. I’ll admit I do have Texas Tech in a bracket pool, so it’s a bit of a hedge per se, however, I do think the Razorbacks roll for another game.

Normally speeding things up against Texas Tech would be an issue, given how good their offense is. However, the Razorback’s offense is playing much better recently, and I think they dominate in the paint. The Hogs don’t take very many threes, as over 65% of their shots come from inside the arc, where they rank Top 40 in 2P% in their last 10 games, shooting over 55%. I do not see Texas Tech being able to contain the Hogs inside, as they drop from 63rd to 129th in 2P% over their recent stretch. The Hogs had 34 points in the paint against undersized Kansas in round 1, and 46 against St. John’s, not to mention their 17+ free throws in each contest.

The Red Raiders will need their shots from downtown to fall in order to keep up with the Hogs inside scoring, and they haven’t been falling like they have during the regular season. Arkansas’ boasts a Top 60 3P% defense holding their opponents to under 32%. The Red Raiders don’t offensive rebound, they don’t get to the free throw line, and this will be a wake up call given their last two matchups.

Give me the Hogs and Coach Cal to keep on dancing.

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