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Arizona State vs TCU Basketball Prediction & Picks (March Madness 2023 First Round)

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Arizona State vs TCU Basketball Prediction & Picks (March Madness 2023 First Round) cover

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After routing Nevada in the First Four, Arizona State will look to stick around in the NCAA Tournament longer than archrival Arizona as they take on TCU in a first-round matchup in the West Regional (10:05 pm ET, truTV).

The 11th-seeded Sun Devils (22-12) torched Nevada 98-73 in First Four on Wednesday to set up a showdown with the sixth-seeded Horned Frogs (21-12), who will be looking to put a so-so run through Big 12 play behind them in Denver.

Which of these power conference programs advance to the second round to face either Gonzaga or Grand Canyon? Read on for our Arizona State vs TCU prediction and picks.

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Arizona State vs TCU Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, March 17, 2023.

Spread

Arizona State +5.5 (-115)
TCU -5.5 (-105)

Over/Under

Over 141.5 (-114)
Under 141.5 (-106)

Moneyline

Arizona State +184
TCU -225

Which TCU Will Show Up in Denver?

This season, the Horned Frogs have eight wins against teams who made the March Madness field: Iowa (neutral), Providence (home), Baylor, Kansas State (home and in the Big 12 Tournament), West Virginia (home), Kansas (away), and Texas (home).

But since starting 13-1 SU and 8-5-1 ATS this season, they are 8-11 SU and 7-12-0 ATS.

However, they have a healthy Mike Miles Jr. now, and that is something that they have not had for several games. TCU is 18-7 when Miles has played but only 3-5 when he hasn’t, and one of the seven losses with him was an overtime loss at Mississippi State in which he played only four minutes due to injury.

What the Horned Frogs won’t have against Arizona State is big man Eddie Lampkin Jr., who has left the team and entered the transfer portal.

Will that make much of a difference? Not particularly, given that Lampkin’s minutes decreased down the stretch and he didn’t take the leap this year that many might have expected him to after he finished last season with 20 points and 14 rebounds in a near-upset of Arizona.

Speaking of Arizona, a miraculous shot against the Wildcats last month is the reason why the Sun Devils made the field.

They took full advantage of it in Dayton, but will they stick around for a little longer? The program hasn’t advanced past the first round since 2009, and Bobby Hurley hasn’t advanced out of the round of 64 as a head coach.

But winning can be contagious, and TCU’s offensive inconsistency could make them vulnerable to the upset if Arizona State catches fire offensively again.

For example, in their 66-60 loss to Texas in the Big 12 Tournament, TCU made 8 of 19 threes (42.1%), well above their season numbers (5.5 made threes per game, 30.6% from three). But they were just 13 of 40 (32.5%) on two-point shots, which is atrocious.

It’s highly unlikely that the Sun Devils will shoot 63.6% from the field again like they did against the Wolf Pack, but such a performance can be worth a lot of mileage for a team that hasn’t always delivered in such moments this season.

Arizona State vs TCU Prediction and Picks

Prediction for Arizona State vs TCU: Arizona State to win

Picks for Arizona State vs TCU: Arizona State/TCU over 141.5 (Best Value: BetUS)

I think this one can go either way. Arizona State could very well win, but they could also end up getting blown out like they blew out Nevada. Such is their potential and TCU’s potential as well.

So, I’m staying far, far away from a side, but I do like the over here.

Where to Bet on Arizona State vs TCU

Here are four legal sports betting sites that we highly recommend and have reviewed, where you can bet on this year’s NCAA men’s and women’s tournaments, as well as the 2023 NIT.