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Alabama vs Texas A&M Basketball Prediction & Picks

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They can no longer win a share of the SEC regular season title, but #24 Texas A&M can finish SEC play with a perfect home record with a win over #2 Alabama (12:00 pm ET, ESPN).

The Crimson Tide (26-4, 16-1 SEC) clinched the title outright with an overtime win over Auburn on Wednesday, so today’s game in College Station isn’t as meaningful as it could have been.

But the Aggies (22-8, 14-3 SEC), who are locked in to the #2 seed in next week’s SEC Tournament in Nashville, will finish 9-0 at home in SEC play and pick up a signature win that can help their March Madness seeding.

Who will take the win in College Station? Read on for our Alabama vs Texas A&M prediction and picks.

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Alabama vs Texas A&M Odds

Odds for Alabama vs Texas A&M are via BetOnline as of Saturday, March 4, 2023.

Spread

Alabama +2.5 (-118)
Texas A&M -2.5 (-104)

Over/Under

Over 150.5 (-110)
Under 150.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Alabama +106
Texas A&M -128

As impressively as Alabama’s 16-1 SEC record is, they had done a solid job of also covering until recently.

Overall, the Crimson Tide are 11-7-0 ATS in SEC play, but they are just 1-4-0 ATS in their last five games.

And while Alabama has reeled off four straight wins since losing at Tennessee, things have been a bit dicey in their last three games.

Actually beating them is obviously no small feat, but these recent results show that the Crimson Tide are certainly beatable.

And if anyone can beat them, it’s the Aggies, who are 3-0 against ranked teams with home wins over Missouri and Tennessee and a road win at Auburn.

Strong defensive play has been key to Texas A&M’s success in SEC play, which has helped them overcome an underwhelming showing in non-conference action.

The Aggies have allowed 70 or more points only three times in SEC play, including just once at home in an 83-78 win over Auburn on February 7.

Only five teams–South Alabama, UConn, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, and Tennessee–have held Alabama under 70 points this season, and if A&M can join that list, the outcome will likely be a good one for the Aggies.

When the Tide have been held under 70 points, they are just 2-3 SU and haven’t covered the spread a single time. On the flip side, when A&M has given up under 70 points, they are 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS, with the lone SU loss coming at Mississippi State last Saturday.

Alabama vs Texas A&M Prediction and Picks

Crimson Tide vs Aggies Prediction: Texas A&M to win

Crimson Tide vs Aggies Picks: Texas A&M ML (Best Value: BetOnline) & Alabama/Texas A&M under 150.5 (Best Value: BetOnline & BetMGM)

By far, my favorite bet for this matchup is the under. The total has been 140 or above only three other times in Texas A&M’s SEC games, and the under hit in each instance. Also, the under is 10-3-0 in A&M’s conference games with a total of 135 or higher.

As for a side, I’m rolling with the ML over the spread. I like the Aggies at home, but I don’t love the spread enough, even at this number, to prefer it over the ML.