Alabama vs North Carolina Prediction & Best Bets (West Region Semifinals): Defense Optional for Tide & Tar Heels?

What will be the highest scoring game of the Sweet Sixteen? The top candidate is tonight’s matchup between Alabama and North Carolina, the second West Region semifinal (9:39 pm ET, CBS) at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles.

It’s only fitting that the most entertaining game of the Sweet Sixteen could be in a city known for entertainment, right?

The fourth-seeded Crimson Tide (23-11) lead Division I in scoring (90.7 PPG), while the Tar Heels (29-7), the West’s top seed, rank 20^th at 81.8 PPG.

Both teams are led by highly productive guards who can light it up from outside. Alabama’s Mark Sears (21.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.2 APG) is a 43.5% shooter from outside, while North Carolina’s RJ Davis (21.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.4 APG), the ACC Player of the Year, is a 41.1% shooter from the perimeter.

Will we see Sears and Davis show out on the Sweet Sixteen stage? Whose team will move on to face either Clemson or Arizona in Saturday’s regional final? Continue reading for an Alabama vs North Carolina prediction and the bets you should make for this must-see matchup in L.A.

Alabama vs North Carolina Odds

Odds are via BetOnline, a longtime fixture in the sports betting industry. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then grab yourself a nice sign-up bonus to bet on the Sweet Sixteen.

Spread

• Alabama +4.5 (-110)
• North Carolina -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 173.5 (-110)
• Under 173.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Alabama +170
• North Carolina -195

Looking for more picks for today’s games? Our NCAA basketball picks page features moneyline, spread, and total (over/under) picks for today’s four NCAA Tournament games.

Alabama vs North Carolina Betting Analysis and Prediction

Nate Oats’ first four seasons at Alabama produced 92 wins, two SEC regular season championships, two SEC Tournament titles, two Sweet Sixteen appearances, and a lot of points.

But that success came despite the Crimson Tide shooting no better than 44.6% from the field. That occurred last season, when Alabama won 31 games, swept the SEC regular season and tournament titles, and was the #1 overall seed for the 2023 NCAA Tournament.

Is this the year that the Tide finally get over the hump in March? They enter their matchup with the Tar Heels shooting 47.7% from the field (28^th in Division I) and 36.7% from three (32^nd in Division I), both highs for the Oats era. They’re also shooting 77.6% from the foul line (17^th in Division I), which is also a high for the Oats era.

There’s still the occasion dud of a performance offensively, like in their 72-61 win over Grand Canyon in the second round. Against the ‘Lopes, the Tide shot only 25.8% from three and 36.9% overall from the field on the way to producing their second-lowest point total of the season.

But given that they have been held to fewer than 80 points in consecutive games only twice this season, we should see more from Alabama on the offensive end tonight.

Alabama vs North Carolina Players to Watch

Alabama

• Mark Sears: 21.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.7 SPG, 43.5% 3PT
• Aaron Estrada: 13.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.7 SPG
• Grant Nelson: 11.4 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.5 BPG

North Carolina

• RJ Davis: 21.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.4 APG, 41.1% 3PT
• Armando Bacot: 14.4 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG
• Harrison Ingram: 12.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.1 APG

Will it be enough to deliver the program’s first trip to the Elite Eight since 2004?

They have beaten a lot of teams this season by overwhelming them offensively, but North Carolina has the horses to not only keep pace in a race but also to really make the most of Alabama’s defensive deficiencies.

After all, the Tar Heels put up 100 on Tennessee, who held Alabama to 71 and 74 points this season. And in the second round, they did what only four other teams were able to do this season and put up 80+ points against Michigan State in an 85-69 win over the Spartans.

This season, UNC is 17-2 SU and 14-5 ATS when scoring 80+ points, with their lone SU losses coming against Villanova (83-81 in OT) and Kentucky (87-83).

Those are some strong numbers, and I think they will improve upon them tonight. Alabama will score plenty, but their weakness on the other end of the court will prove to be their undoing against one of the few teams out there that can beat them at their own game.

Prediction: North Carolina to win and cover

Alabama vs North Carolina Best Bets

North Carolina -4.5 & Alabama/North Carolina over 173.5

Bonus Pick: RJ Davis Over 22.5 Points (-124 at BetOnline)

Davis is averaging 24.3 points per game over his last four games, and he went 22 (8 of 13 FG, 4 of 7 3PT, 2 of 2 FT) against Wagner in the first round and 20 (7 of 15 FG, 3 of 7 3PT, 3 of 4 FT) against Michigan State in the second round.

Alabama does defend the three well (31.3%, 40^th in Division I), but I don’t think they will be able to contain him in what should be a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

More March Madness Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on March Madness This Year?

Each year, millions upon of millions of March Madness bets are placed at the top online sports betting sites.

Most March Madness betting takes place around and at tournament time, which is from mid-March to early April. But throughout the year, you can bet on who you think will win the college basketball national championship.

Along with men’s college basketball odds, most good sportsbooks now carry women’s college basketball national championship odds, which are drawing a lot of attention this season with the likes of South Carolina, Iowa, and LSU vying to cut down the nets in Cleveland, Ohio on April 7.

Numerous sportsbooks are good for March Madness betting, but in addition to BetOnline, here are some of the books that we have reviewed and highly recommend:

• BetDSI (Review)
• BetUS (Review)
• Bovada (Review)
• MyBookie (Review)

If you are unfamiliar with any of the above sites, check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about them. Speaking of offers, keep an eye on the latest sportsbook offers from these books and others as the countdown to the opening tip of March Madness continues. That way, you will not miss out on any special sports betting promos and bonuses to pad your bankroll for March Madness betting.

Other March Madness Content at Betting News

If you like this Alabama vs North Carolina betting breakdown and would like to check out our other March Madness content, our March Madness guide is where you can find it all in one tidy place. But here’s a rundown of some of what we have put together to help you with your NCAA Tournament betting this year.

We’re also covering the 2024 NIT, so check out that content as well.

• Men’s March Madness Futures Odds
• Women’s March Madness Futures Odds
• 2024 Men’s Final Four Odds
• Six Men’s March Madness Sleepers for 2024
• Best March Madness Betting Tips & Strategies
• Where to Find the Best March Madness Betting Picks
• Best March Madness Betting Sites for This Year
• This Year’s Best March Madness Bracket Challenges
• Betting News Bracket Mania (Our FREE March Madness Bracket Challenge!)

Interested in Learning More About Betting on March Madness & NCAA Basketball?

If you are interested in learning more about betting on men’s or women’s NCAA basketball, check out our college basketball betting guide. It covers the basics of wagering on March Madness, the Mountain West, the MAAC, McNeese State, and beyond.

• College Basketball Betting Guide: How to Bet on NCAA Basketball in 2024

Also, follow Betting News on X/Twitter, Twitch, and TikTok to get more March Madness and NCAA basketball insight from myself and the rest of our team. We’re cooking up a lot of great NCAA Tournament content for both the men’s and women’s tournaments, so hit those links so you don’t miss out on any of it.

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