Warriors vs. Heat | NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bets (3/25)

Jimmy makes his highly anticipated return to South Beach tonight. It’s been over two months since Jimmy played his last game as a member of the Miami Heat, that too coming right in front of the South Beach faithful.

Warriors/Heat, live from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. 

Warriors vs. Heat| Information

Matchup Information

• Location: Kaseya Center; Miami, Florida
• Date: Tuesday, March 25th, 2025
• Tipoff: 7:40 PM EST

Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat| Previous Matchups

• Heat (114) @ Warriors (98) – 1/07/2025
• Warriors (113) @ Heat (92) – 3/26/2024
• Heat (114) @ Warriors (102) – 12/28/23

Injury Report

Golden State Warriors

• Stephen Curry – Questionable

Miami Heat

• Nikola Jovic – OUT
• Duncan Robinson – Questionable

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

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Warriors vs. Heat | Analysis

Jimmy Buckets

Tonight might not be the warm return for Jimmy Butler one might expect for a superstar that led their team to multiple NBA Finals Appearances. His exit from the team this year was less than graceful, his issues with management were evident from the jump and the team just never looked as good as they had in year’s past.

Miami’s gone 4-18 since Jimmy’s departure, recording a 17-29 record without him in the lineup this year and losing as many as 12-straight games. It’s been all but smooth sailing for Miami and I don’t expect the fans to be so forgiving.

The team’s already made it clear that Jimmy will receive a small tribute from the Heat, but as to whether the fans feel the same, that remains to be seen.

Golden Hour in Golden State

Since Jimmy’s arrival in Golden State, the team’s been firing on all cylinders. The Warriors are 16-3 with Jimmy in the lineup, averaging 118.1 PPG and allowing just 107.5 PPG; ranking in the top-5 of both categories. The Dubs are a completely different team with Jimmy and he’s once again shown how important a piece he can be.

Butler’s averaging less than 18 PPG since arriving in Golden State, but his impact has been immediate. His teammates are shooting better, the offense is scoring more points and their defense has tightened up. He’s done everything right since getting to the Bay and it really makes you think; maybe Miami should have just paid Jimmy.

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Jimmy Buckets o34.5 PRA (-110) via BetOnline

After everything I just said about Jimmy, you bet your a** we’re taking some Jimmy props. Butler hasn’t really needed to be a 25+ point scorer for this Warriors team, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be. Over his L10 games, Jimmy’s averaging 19.8 PPG and he’s taking an average of 8.5 free throw attempts per game.

Since arriving, Jimmy leads this Warriors team in assists per game, sits 2nd in rebounds per game and is recording 34% of the team’s assists. Butler’s averaging 14.2 potential assists per game and 10 rebounds per game since coming to Golden State and has playing just under 33 MPG.

With all the narrative surrounding this return, it’s just impossible for me to stay off some Jimmy Buckets props tonight.

Jimmy Butler o34.5 PRA (-110)

Warriors -4.5 (-115) via BetOnline

The Warriors have just been so good with Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat have been just as bad. It’s tough for me to think this Miami team has what it takes to keep up with this high powered Warriors offense tonight and with Jimmy back in town, what better revenge than a beat down of your old team.

The Heat had lost 12 straight games before the matchup with the Hornets on Sunday night. They come into this one having won just 4 of their previous 11 matchups, while the Warriors have covered this line in 12 of their L20 games overall and in 7 of the 9 road games they’ve played with Jimmy in the lineup.

With so much narrative and emotion surrounding this game, I expect it to stay close but the 4.5-points feels just a little too close. Look for the Warriors to pull ahead late with free throws and cover this number. .

Warriors -4.5 (-115)

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To Recap, Bets for the Warriors vs. Heat| March 25th, 2025

We’re rolling with 2 plays; Jimmy Buckets o34.5 PRA (-100) & Warriors -4.5 (-115); both via BetOnline.

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