Grizzlies vs Nuggets NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/11)

These two NBA teams have a lot in common. They fired coaches very late in the season, they’re lead by superstars, and they’re both desperate for better seeding for round one. It’s Friday. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Ball Arena Denver, CO
• Memphis Grizzlies (47-33) visit the Denver Nuggets (48-32)
• Previous Matchup: DEN 122-110 November 19th, 2024

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Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets

The Grizzlies come into this one having been beat down by the Timberwolves. They showed life in the second half, Ja gave us yet another celebration, but the most telling thing here? They gave up 52 points in the third quarter. Their bad defence is getting worse. They get the Nuggets tonight and the Mavericks on Sunday.

“That’s my celebration now until somebody else has a problem with it, and I’ll find another one,” Morant said on Thursday. Memphis Superstar should probably limit distractions and keep the focus on basketball. But that’s just me.

Nikola Jokic had the whiteboard on the bench last game. He was coaching up his teammates and putting up a triple double. The Joker also said the Nuggets might be a beast that’s woken up. Let’s hope the beast isn’t still a little sleepy. Tough game tonight then the Rockets on Sunday.

Strangely, these teams haven’t played one another since late November. These two squads have seen a lot of basketball since then. Consequently, unfamiliarity should breed chaos.

JA MORANT THREW ANOTHER GRENADE INTO THE CROWD 😭 pic.twitter.com/vtmMGlKt01

— LakeShowYo (@LakeShowYo) April 11, 2025

NBA Game Analysis

Memphis will likely come into this one very angry. If they don’t then their season is cooked. The referees’ whistle was not on their side and the Timberwolves were shooting the lights out. Fortunately, Memphis showed their offence is still top tier. They made the T’wolves earn it in the fourth quarter.

Jamal Murray is listed as doubtful and Russell Westbrook was benched down the stretch of last game. Desmond Bane and Ja Morant will see a lot of the undersized and inexperienced Jalen Pickett.

The Nuggets haven’t held a team to under 100 points since the Utah Jazz on the last day of March. An late season coaching change is no time to implement a new defensive philosophy. There’s a reason this is the highest total on the board today. Do not be afraid of chalk in this one. If both of these teams somehow find defence tonight it will be a shocking turn of events. Memphis is the 8th ranked fast break offence and the Nuggets are number one. Both teams are bottom ten at defending the break.

Even with all the points we should get great competitive basketball. Both teams are bottom ten scoring defences. For the Grizzlies the over has hit in 12 of the last 27 games against bottom 10 scoring defences. Furthermore, the Denver Nuggets are 26-12 in games against bottom ten defences. However, fortunately for fans, The Nuggets are only 1-12 against the spread in their last 13 at home.

Conversely, if we do see some defence here are some fun tidbits from our friends at Outlier.Bet:

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• Peyton Watson has exceeded 1.5 blocks in 6 straight games at home (3.2 blocks/game average).
• Peyton Watson has exceeded 2.5 steals + blocks in 7 straight games at home (3.4 steals + blocks/game average).
• Jaren Jackson Jr. has exceeded 0.5 steals in 9 of his last 10 games on the road (1.3 steals/game average).
• Russell Westbrook has exceeded 0.5 steals in 14 of his last 15 games (1.7 steals/game average).

Check out our Championship odds piece!

NBA Best Bet: Christian Braun o15.5 Points (-105)

Christian Braun scores 6.2 points in transition per game. He scores better in transition than LeBron James, De’Aaron Fox, Donovan Mitchell, and Norman Powell. He is elite in this respect. The Nuggets do not run plays for him he scores on open looks, cuts, and transition. In a game where he will have plenty of opportunity for all three I want to bet on Braun.

Thanks for Reading!

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