Suns vs Timberwolves NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (3/28)

The National Basketball Association just hits different on a Friday night. We’ve got NBA Legend Kevin Durant heading into the cold, cold Minnesota. The Timberwolves welcome them inside of the Target Center as both teams chase favourable seeding for the playoffs. Let’s talk hoops.

Game Information

• Target Center Minneapolis MN
• Phoenix Suns (35-38) visit the Minnesota Timberwolves (41-32)
• Previous Matchup: MIN 116-98, March 2nd, 2025

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Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Let’s get into it, the visitors from The Valley arrive into this one having lost to the Celtics after winning five of six games and four straight. The Suns sit 10th in the tumultuous Western Conference and they simply cannot afford to lose any games. This is nearly a lost season for Phoenix. They are one of three second apron luxury tax teams heading into next season. The other two are Boston and Cleveland. Moreover, Boston and Cleveland are unequivocal contenders. The Suns are not equal to the company they keep in that respect. As a result, change will come this offseason. Also, they have the toughest strength of schedule in their games remaining. 

Anthony Edwards takes on his idol tonight. That has to mean something when wagering this game. The two have actually formed a deep bond.

“That’s my GOAT… I’m starting to see like, ‘Okay, yeah Kevin Durant is real…’ then he start guarding me. I’m like, ‘KD, come on, KD. Like you ain’t no defensive player.'”

Anthony Edwards on facing KD in the playoffs last year 😅

(via @uninterrupted)pic.twitter.com/EehWI4eqRH

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) March 2, 2025

Furthermore, this game means a lot for the standings too. While Phoenix is scratching to stay in 10th place, Minnesota is only 8th in the West, and they are coming off losing to the Pacers on the road. Fortunately, Minnesota is 7-3 in their last ten. They also have the 26th toughest strength of schedule remaining. Consequently, the Timberwolves are likely focused in on getting out of the Play-In. Chris Finch’s team is competing with the Warriors and Clippers to get that coveted sixth seed to avoid potentially two needless games.

NBA Game Analysis

Nevertheless, Phoenix does have one path to victory every single night they take the floor: SCORE. The Timberwolves are outside the top ten defending points in the paint and 2nd chance points. If the boys in orange bring the effort they may have a chance. Sadly, that chance is slim.

The Suns are 22nd to points allowed and pretty much bottom half to every shooting category allowed. They are 25th in fast break defence, 29th in steals, and 28th in Turnover % on defence. However, if this team wins a game the boxscore easily tells you why. One of their three max money stars goes crazy and it is not Bradley Beal. So far, Minnesota has a fantastic defence allowing only 109.3 points per game good for 6th in the association. A herculean effort from Durant or Booker will be needed to secure a win.

Edwards loves Durant. Durant loves Edwards.

In three games against Phoenix, Edwards is averaging 33.7 points in 38.3 minutes per contest. The Ant-Man thrives inside of narratives. He is a Hollywood blockbuster superstar. In two games against his mentee, Durant is averaging 29.5 points per game while shooting 41.2 % from three. The Slim Reaper is deadly as ever in his advanced age. He is a generational icon.

Additionally, it must be noted that the Minnesota Timberwolves are 3-0 against the Suns during this NBA season. Durant had 26 but was a -16 on the court. That was tied for second worst on the Suns that night. That last game Edwards had 44 points with 6 three-pointers and 7 assists. This could be a bounce back spot for Edwards for he has only scored 17 points each in his last two games.

To conclude, the over has hit in 8 of the Timberwolves last dozen NBA games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences. This team gets into shootouts with bad defences. Also, Phoenix is 28th in opponent Assist-to-Turnover ratio. Meaning, The Ant-Man will have space to operate. This game should be a lot of fun. Phoenix’s desperation for a win could propel this one into a competitive affair.

Key Outlier.Bet Insights: 

• The Minnesota Timberwolves are 5-1 (83.3%) in their last 6 games vs. bottom 10 scoring defences.
• The Minnesota Timberwolves are 9-4 (69.2%) against the spread in their last 13 games at home.

NBA Best Bet: Julius Randle o28.5 PRA (-115)

Julius Randle has hit this line in 12 of 20 overall and also 12 of his last 20 home games. The Suns are not terrible at defending the power forward but when Naz Reid plays with Randle I would argue the latter plays centre. When facing the centre position, Phoenix is 28th in points allowed, 25th in rebounds allowed, and 22nd is assists allowed. Consequently, Julius Randle has hit this line in 5 straight games against the purple and orange. Including three impressive performances this season. Randle is averaging 27.7 points per game against Phoenix. The over 28.5 PRA at home feels incredibly comfortable.

“Theres nobody that can guard him in the mid post, and I really believe it.” — Donte DiVincenzo on how impactful Julius Randle has been in Minnesota pic.twitter.com/Yvfo9DHsOK

— TheYoungManAndTheThree (@OldManAndThree) March 22, 2025

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