Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Game 1 Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (5/7): Will Dallas Finally Win in OKC?

Today’s Mavericks vs. Thunder  NBA predictions and best bets for Game 1 are brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the NBA playoffs to the UFC odds and everything in between.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Luka Doncic go head-to-head when the Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder meet for Game 1 of their second-round NBA playoff series on Tuesday, May 7.

The series is set ⚡️

Western Conference Semifinals against the Dallas Mavericks begins Tuesday in OKC 🗓️ pic.twitter.com/kKldVcVqCy

— OKC THUNDER (@okcthunder) May 4, 2024

The Thunder barely broke a sweat in Round 1, sending the New Orleans Pelicans packing with a four-game sweep. Meanwhile, the Mavericks advanced by eliminating the LA Clippers in a hard-fought six-game series.

Will Oklahoma City win its first second-round playoff game in nearly a decade? Or will Dallas find a way to pull off the road upset?

Let’s answer those questions while taking a look at tonight’s best NBA bets by getting into my Mavericks vs. Thunder Game 1 predictions and picks.

Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Betting Tonight (5/7)

Mavericks vs Thunder Game 1 Information

• Matchup: No. 5 Dallas Mavericks vs. No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder (Series tied 0-0)
• Venue & Location: Paycom Center (Oklahoma City, OK)
• Date: Tuesday, May 7, 2024
• Game Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Mavericks vs. Thunder: TNT

Thunder vs Mavericks NBA Game 1 Betting Odds & Spread

Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Tuesday, May 7 at 10:00 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Thunder vs Mavericks Spread

• Dallas Mavericks +3.5 (-107)
• Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (-113)

Mavericks vs Thunder Over/Under

• Over 218.5 Points (-110)
• Under 218.5 Points (-110)

Thunder vs Mavericks Moneyline

• Dallas Mavericks (+145)
• Oklahoma City Thunder (-165)

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Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Betting Trends

• Dallas is 1-4 straight up in its last five games vs. Oklahoma City.
• Oklahoma City is 9-0 straight up in its last nine games.
• Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
• Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games vs. Dallas.
• The total hit the Under in 14 of Dallas’ last 20 games.
• The total hit the Under in four of Oklahoma City’s last six games played on Tuesday.

Mavericks vs Thunder Game 1 Predictions & NBA Picks Today (5/7)

All eyes are on this series to see who’ll advance to the Western Conference Finals. It’s been nearly a decade since the Thunder last played in the conference finals whereas the Mavericks were just there during the 2021-22 season.

Although both teams deserve to play in Round 3, Oklahoma City has a slight advantage heading into Game 1. After all, the Thunder emerged victorious in three of its four meetings against the Mavericks during the regular season. In fact, it was only on April 14 when OKC notched a massive 135-86 victory over Dallas at Paycom Center.

The Mavs have now lost three straight trips to Oklahoma City. Not only were they held to a 104.7 point-per-game clip during that stretch, but they were also outscored by 22.3 PPG.

Dallas did win two of its three road games in the opening round, but that doesn’t mean much in Oklahoma City’s eyes. The Thunder own an impressive 35-8 SU home record between the regular season and playoffs, and have won each of their last seven outings at Paycom Center.

The Thunder haven’t lost at Paycom Center since March 27. Will that change tonight? 

Both teams averaged similar point totals in Round 1, but it was the Thunder who were more accurate. They shot 48.2% from the field and 38.7% from the three-point line, whereas the Mavericks shot 46.5% and 33.5%, respectively. Oklahoma City also had slightly higher averages when it came to rebounds, assists, and steals.

Another thing that the Thunder have going for them is a healthier lineup. While Oklahoma City plays at full strength tonight, Dallas will be without Olivier-Maxence Prosper (ankle) and Maxi Kleber (shoulder) while Luka Doncic is probable to play through his knee injury.

Taking all of the above into account, I’m backing the Thunder to win Game 1. Oklahoma City dominated Dallas during the regular season and I see that trend continuing with the latter being banged up. Throw in the fact that the Mavs can’t seem to win at Paycome Center and it’s even easier to feel confident about the Thunder’s chance.

But no matter who wins, I like the Over on the 218.5-point total. After all, the Mavericks and Thunder averaged a combined 242.3 points during their four regular-season meetings, surpassing tonight’s projected total each time.

With the Over now being 7-1 in the last eight Dallas-OKC matchups, it’s clear that bettors should prepare for a lot of points this evening.

Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Game 1 Prediction: OKC wins

Best Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Bet: o218.5 Total Points (-110)

Get 50% up to $1,000 on your Mavericks vs. Thunder NBA picks today at BetOnline

Best Mavericks vs Thunder NBA Game 1 Prop Bet (5/7)

When it comes to the best Mavericks vs. Thunder player props, I feel good about Chet Holmgren o8.5 rebounds (-136).

Just as he did during the regular season, Holmgren was a solid rebounding presence for the Thunder in Round 1. The 22-year-old center averaged 8.8 rebounds through his first four postseason games, finishing with the Over twice. He now gets to face the Mavericks, whom he averaged 10.0 rebounds against in the four regular-season matchups, racking up nine-plus boards thrice while never finishing with fewer than eight.

After the Mavs allowed Ivica Zubac to average 9.3 RPG last round, I feel good about Holmgren’s chances to hit the Over again.

Best Mavericks vs Thunder Game 1 Prop Bet: Chet Holmgren 09.5 Rebounds (-136)

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Still Here? NBA Playoffs 2023-24 FAQ

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• The 2023-24 NBA playoffs are scheduled to begin on Saturday, April 20, and should be wrapped up by Sunday, June 23.

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