Heat vs. Hawks | NBA Analysis and Best Bets (4/18)

The NBA’s Play-In Tournament is almost over and the postseason‘s about to begin. Miami travels to Atlanta tonight with a spot in the postseason on the line, win or go home; who’s coming out on top?

For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our NBA Picks Page or our NBA Odds Page, here. 

Heat/Hawks, live from State Farm Arena  in Atlanta, Georgia. 

Heat vs. Hawks | Information

Matchup Information

• Location: State Farm Arena; Atlanta, Georgia
• Date: Friday, April 18th, 2025
• Tipoff: 7:10 PM EST

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks | Regular Season Matchups

• Hawks (112) @ Heat (122) – 3/27/25
• Hawka (109) @ Heat (131) – 2/26/25
• Heat (86) @ Hawks (98) – 2/24/25
• Heat (110) @ Hawks (120) – 12/28/24

Injury Report

Miami Heat

• Nikola Jovic – Questionable
• Kevin Love – Questionable
• Pelle Larson – Questionable
• Dru Smith – OUT
• Isaiah Stevens – OUT

Atlanta Hawks

• Clint Capela – Questionable
• Jalen Johnson – OUT
• Larry Nance – OUT
• Kobe Bufkin – OUT

Betting Odds

Odds via BetOnline, an industry leader in the sports betting world.

Heat vs. Hawks | Analysis

*Shivers*

Familiar Territory

Two teams that have consistently been in the NBA’s Play-In Tournament since it’s inception, the Miami Heat and the Atlanta Hawks. This marks the fourth straight year that Atlanta’s found themselves in the play-in games, third straight year for Miami and the second time these two will meet in the tournament.

Including this year, Trae Young’s now played in 5 different play-in games, averaging 27.4 PPG and 8.6 APG; despite terrible shooting splits. For Miami, it’s Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro that are taking part in their third straight play-in tournament; both having played in 5 different play-in games now.

Herro’s led the charge for Miami in these play-in games, averaging 25.0 PPG and coming off a 38-point performance against Chicago. In that last game against Chicago, Bam struggled to find his groove; scoring just 15 points on 37.5% from the field.

Whether it’s the pressure of a single elimination game, or just bad shooting nights; Bam’s struggled in the play-in tournament. In his 5-games, Bam’s averaged just 11.6 PPG; shooting 40.7% from the field and 60% from the free throw line.

Win or Go Home

The most exciting part of the play-in tournament is the fact that this could be you’re last game of the season. One game, winner take all; loser goes to Cabo.

These are the very moments where we see superstars made and players leave it all out on the court. Trae Young’s coming off a game in which he was ejected after playing 40 of the first 43 minutes of the game. Trae played 22 minutes in the first half and up until his ejection late in the fourth quarter, he’d played the entire second half.

In Miami’s game against the Bulls, it was Bam and Herro that played 37 minutes; despite winning by 19-points. At this point in the season we see rotations tighten up and team’s begin to lean more on their stars. Win or go home.

Our Best Bets in the Heat vs. Hawks, April 18th

Dyson Daniels o25.5 PRA (-102 via BetOnline)

The Hawks scored 95 points in their first play-in game and if that happens against Miami, it’ll most likely mean the end of their season. Daniels played 35 minutes in their blowout loss to Orlando, 2nd only to Trae Young. If the Hawks hope to be better on offense tonight, it has to start with a better night for Daniels.

Dyson finished with just 7 points against the Magic, shooting 38% on just 8 field goal attempts and making just one of his two free throws. He struggled to score the ball but Dyson was active in other way, grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out 7 assists.

Daniels will need to have more of an impact on the offensive side if he hopes to help get his team into the postseason. This season against Miami, Dyson’s averaged 12.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.3 APG and 3.7 steals/game. He’s been a menace on the defensive side but he’ll need to turn some of those steals into points and help ignite this Hawks offense.

In the 3 games against Miami this year, Atlanta’s averaged just 109.8 PPG but have allowed the Heat to average 112.3 PPG. The two teams split the season series 2-2 with Dyson clearing this line in just 1 of the 3 games he suited up for. He’s gone over this line in 7 of his L9 games, averaging 14.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, and 5.1 APG.

This is the closest thing Dyson’s seen to real playoff type minutes, look for him to respond.

Davion Mitchell o16.5 P/A (+105 via BetOnline)

Davion Mitchell, also known as Off Night. Davion’s become a vital piece of this Heat rotation, providing a huge defensive presence off the bench; usually guarding the opposition’s best player. In the team’s first play-in game, Mitchell had the task of guarding Coby White.

Mitchell held White to 17 points, shooting 5/20 (25%) from the field and 3/12 from beyond the arc. Despite Alec Burks getting the start, it was Mitchell who played 33 minutes for Miami and helped anchor this Heat defense.

Davion’s hit this line in 7 of his L10 games, averaging 12.5 PPG and 7.0 APG; shooting 51% from the field and averaging 11.9 potential assists per game. He’s also played 32+ minutes in 8 of his L10 games with the other games being two meaningless games to finish the season.

With Trae Young on the other side of the ball, you’d have to think Miami’s going to lean on their young, defensive-minded guard to keep him under control. The last time these two met in the play-in, the Hawks won; Trae had 25/8/7 and Miami was almost sent home. This year, they won’t get a second chance, so look for Davion to step up to the challenge.

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