Heat vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | NBA Picks Today (3/7): Miami Covers in Big D

Today’s Heat vs. Mavericks prediction and NBA best bets are brought to you by Bovada. Bovada is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the NBA to the UFC and everything in between.

Two NBA teams heading in opposite directions collide on Thursday as the Miami Heat (35-26) go head-to-head against the Dallas Mavericks (34-28) at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

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🎟️➡️ https://t.co/FENXnh5h5s@ATT // #MFFL pic.twitter.com/iID5qHW8jI

— Dallas Mavericks (@dallasmavs) March 7, 2024

Jimmy Butler’s team-high 26 points led the Heat to a 118-110 win over the Detroit Pistons on Tuesday, marking their seventh win in the last eight games. Meanwhile, the Mavericks hope to avoid a fourth consecutive loss tonight after falling 137-120 to the Indiana Pacers two nights ago.

Oddsmakers view these teams on the same level as Bovada lists Dallas and Miami tied for the ninth-best 2023-24 NBA Finals odds (+2800).

Will those odds change after tonight’s contest? Only time will tell. In the meantime, keep scrolling as I cover all of your Heat vs. Mavericks betting needs for tonight.

Heat vs Mavericks NBA Betting Tonight (3/7)

Heat vs Mavericks Matchup Information

• Matchup: Miami Heat (35-26, 18-13 Away) vs. Dallas Mavericks (34-28, 18-15 Home)
• Venue & Location: American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)
• Date: Thursday, March 7, 2024
• Game Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Heat vs. Mavericks: TNT

Mavericks vs Heat Odds & Spread

Mavericks vs. Heat odds are courtesy of Bovada as of Thursday, March 7 at 8:59 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Heat vs Mavericks Spread

• Miami Heat +4.5 (-105)
• Dallas Mavericks -4.5 (-115)

Mavericks vs Heat Over/Under

• Over 230 Points (-110)
• Under 230 Points (-110)

Heat vs Mavericks Moneyline

• Miami Heat (+165)
• Dallas Mavericks (-195)

Get 50% up to $750 on your Heat vs. Mavericks betting picks at Bovada

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Best Bets and Picks Tonight

Looking to get in on even more NBA picks today? Check out our NBA Picks page for consensus picks for every 2023-24 season game.

You can also check out:

• NBA betting odds
• NBA news, futures betting, and best bets predictions
• How to bet on the NBA
• 2023-24 NBA Finals Prediction & Dark Horse Pick
• 2024 NBA MVP Odds & Picks

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Heat vs Mavericks NBA Betting Trends

• Miami is 14-6 straight up in its last 20 games vs. Dallas.
• Dallas is 1-4 straight up in its last five games vs. the Eastern Conference.
• Miami is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.
• Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games played in March.
• The total hit the Under in 11 of Miami’s last 15 games.
• The total hit the Under in five of Dallas’ last seven games as the favorite.

Heat vs Mavericks Prediction & NBA Picks Today (3/7): Potential Upset Alert?

Even though the Mavericks have the home-court advantage tonight, it’s somewhat hard to buy into them as 4.5-point favorites.

The Mavericks have struggled to produce results, picking up three straight losses and five across their last six outings. The inability to stop opponents from scoring is one reason why the losses keep piling up. Dallas has allowed an average of 129.0 points in the last six games, allowing each of those foes to rack up at least 120 points.

The Mavs’ latest loss was the perfect encapsulation of those struggles. They allowed the Pacers to score 137 points while shooting 53.8% from the floor and going 18-for-39 (46.2%) at the three-point line. The Mavericks also trailed by as many as 20 points and never led by more than six.

Even though the Heat have a bottom-five offense this season, it’s worth noting that they scored 129 points when they last met the Mavs on April 1, 2023.

Will the Heat take advantage of the Mavericks’ recent defensive struggles tonight? 

It’ll be interesting to see if Dallas has any issues scoring on Miami tonight.

The Heat have one of the best defenses in the NBA and that hasn’t been any different during their latest run. Over the last eight games, Miami ranks sixth in points allowed, seventh in field-goal percentage allowed, and second in opponent three-point percentage. Erik Spoelstra’s team is also outscoring opponents by an average of 4.4 PPG.

The Mavericks haven’t had much luck against the Heat in recent years, either, losing 14 of the last 20 meetings between these teams. Making matters worse is that Dallas is 1-4 SU against its last five Eastern Conference foes whereas Miami has beaten five of its six previous Western opponents.

As far as injuries go, Luka Doncic (ankle) and Maxi Kleber (knee) are banged up for the Mavs, however, both are probable. Meanwhile, the Heat will be without Tyler Herro (knee), Kevin Love (heel), and Josh Richardson (shoulder).

Luka Doncic (ankle) is probable to face the Heat tonight. 

With the way that the Mavericks have been playing, I’m taking the Heat to win on the road. Dallas is trending in the wrong direction whereas Miami is piling up wins lately. If the Mavs’ inability to play competent defense doesn’t change, the Heat won’t have any issues scoring the ball, resulting in another victory.

Furthermore, let’s take Miami to cover the 4.5-point spread as the best bet. The Heat have been great at covering the spread, going 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as well as 7-0 ATS across their seven latest road outings. The same can’t be said for the Mavericks, who are 2-4 ATS in their last six contests on top of only covering once in their last seven March outings.

Considering how they’re also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 visits to American Airlines Center, the Heat are in a great spot to cover once again.

Heat vs Mavericks NBA Prediction: MIA wins

Best Heat vs Mavericks NBA Bet: MIA +4.5 (-105)

Get 50% up to $750 on your Heat vs. Mavericks NBA picks today over at Bovada

Best Heat vs Mavericks NBA Prop Bet (3/7)

As Dallas struggles to play defense, I can’t help but take Duncan Robinson to record over 3.5 threes made for the best Heat vs. Mavericks player prop tonight.

With Herro injured, Robinson has taken on a bigger role recently and it has paid off. The 29-year-old veteran has been great from the three-point line over the last eight games, averaging 3.5 threes on 45.2% shooting while finishing with the Over five times. He has also finished with at least four threes made in 13 of his 24 starts this season.

When you also consider that the Mavericks own the NBA’s worst three-point defense over the last six games, it isn’t difficult to love this prop even more.

Best Heat vs Mavericks Prop Bet: Duncan Robinson o3.5 Threes Made (+112)

Get 50% up to $750 on your Heat vs. Mavericks NBA picks today over at Bovada

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