Grizzlies vs Warriors Christmas Day Prediction, Picks & Props: Will the Curry-less champs struggle again?

Going into this NBA season, many would have had high expectations for the Christmas Day matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors.

But while the Grizzlies (20-11, 7-9 away) are flying high in the Western Conference standings and are currently one of the hottest teams in the league, a lot of the shine has been taken off of today’s matchup at the Chase Center (8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm local, ABC/ESPN) with where the Warriors (15-18, 12-2 home) are at the moment.

The reigning champs boast one of the NBA’s best home records but have been absolutely abysmal on the road this season, losing 16 of 19. And speaking of losses, they suffered a big one almost two weeks ago when Stephen Curry suffered a shoulder injury at Indiana.

Today’s game against Memphis is the first game of an eight-game homestand for the Dubs, but Curry may only be a spectator for the entire swing.

Stephen Curry, who suffered a subluxation of his left shoulder on December 14 at Indiana and has missed the team’s last four games, was recently re-evaluated.

The re-evaluation indicated that Stephen is making good progress. He will be re-evaluated again in two weeks. pic.twitter.com/jo6FDCnxhY

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) December 24, 2022

Can Golden State still continue winning at home despite his absence? Keep reading for our Grizzlies vs Warriors prediction, along with our picks and analysis for the fourth of five games on this year’s Christmas Day NBA schedule.

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Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Sunday, December 25, 2022, at 11:45 am ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 (-110)
• Golden State Warriors +7.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 233.5 (-108)
• Under 233.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Memphis Grizzlies -300
• Golden State Warriors +245

Warriors Unlikely to Upset the Odds at Home

The Warriors may be 12-2 at home, but that record needs to be thrown out of the window here because Curry played in all 14 of those games.

Without Steph, Golden State has won just won of seven games. That includes a 1-3 mark since he was injured against the Pacers eleven days ago.

After winning 126-110 at Toronto last Sunday, the Warriors lost by 38 to the Knicks at MSG on Tuesday and by 30 against the Nets on Wednesday night at Barclays Center.

Wednesday’s loss was brutal, to put it mildly. They trailed 46-17 after a quarter and 91-51 at halftime, and they were fortunate that the Nets took their foot off of the gas with the game in hand at halftime.

Will the Warriors somehow look better against the Grizzlies in their return to the Chase Center? They are 7-12 straight up against teams that currently have a winning record, and they have the same record against the spread in such games.

Without Steph, they are 3-4 against the spread, having covered in last Sunday’s win over the Raptors, as a six-point underdog in a 124-123 loss at Utah, and as an 11-point underdog in a 114-105 loss at New Orleans on November 4.

The Grizzlies are 10-3 straight up against teams that are currently at or below .500, though they are 6-6-1 ATS in such games. However, they are 3-1-1 in the last five, with the loss coming in their 115-109 loss at Oklahoma City eight days ago.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors Prediction and Picks

Grizzlies vs Warriors Prediction: Grizzlies to win

Grizzlies vs Warriors Pick: Grizzlies team total over

Even though I think Memphis should win this one comfortably, I’m not touching the spread.

However, I will be all over the over on their team total. In their games without Steph, the Warriors have allowed 114, 128, 124, 118, 110, 132, and 143 points.

And in games against teams currently with a winning record, the Dubs have allowed an average of 120.5 PPG.

If you got on this early, kudos to you, because as of this morning, the total has moved up to O/U 120.5 at most spots when it was 118.5 not long ago. But even at 120.5, I still like it a lot.

However, I will recommend grabbing it at 119.5 if you can. Both BetOnline and BetMGM offer a number of alternate totals, and I have no qualms about exchanging a higher number at -110 odds for a lower number at -125 or -130 when the option is available.

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors Player Props

• Ja Morant over 8.5 assists (Best Value: -115 at Bovada Sportsbook)

Since recording 9+ assists just three times in his first 13 games this season, Ja has recorded 9+ assists nine times in his last 13 games, including six times in eight games this month.

Even if the total moved to 9.5, this would still be well worth considering. All nine of his 9+ assist games in his last 13 games have been 10+ assist games, while he had just one double-digit assist game this season prior.

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