Warriors vs Celtics Prediction, Picks & Player Props (1/19): Will Boston flip the script on Golden State?

Last month, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and the Golden State Warriors dispatched the Boston Celtics by 16 points in the first meeting of the season between last season’s NBA finalists.

Tonight, the two teams meet again, this time at TD Garden in Boston in the first game of TNT’s Thursday night doubleheader.

The Celtics (33-12, 17-5 home, 1st in the Eastern Conference) enter tonight with seven straight wins since giving up 150 points in a 33-point loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on January 3.

Meanwhile, the Warriors (22-22, 17-5 home, 7th in the Western Conference) are playing the fourth game of a five-game road trip, with wins over the San Antonio Spurs and Washington Wizards sandwiched around a loss to the Chicago Bulls thus far on the trip.

Will the NBA’s top team flex its muscles tonight against the reigning champions? Read on for our Warriors vs Celtics prediction, as well as our favorite spread, total, and player prop picks for the matchup.

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, January 19, 2023, at 1:12 pm ET. This article may also include odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites.

Spread

• Golden State Warriors +6.5 (-112)
• Boston Celtics -6.5 (-108)

Over/Under

• Over 240.5 (-110)
• Under 240.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Golden State Warriors +205
• Boston Celtics -250

Warriors Unlikely to Leave Boston with a Win

If the Dubs win either tonight or tomorrow night in Cleveland in the final game of this five-game swing, they will equal the number of away wins they had before they hit the road.

However, the odds are not in their favor for a win in either Boston or Cleveland.

The Warriors have won their last three games as an underdog, and last month’s win over the Celtics came as an underdog.

But for the season, they are just 5-10 SU and 7-8 ATS as an underdog, and as a road underdog, Golden State is just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS as a road underdog.

Even if there is some significant line movement in favor of the Celtics, the trends this season are favorable for a comfortable win for the home team.

Boston has been favored by eight or fewer points 26 times this season, and they are 18-8 SU and 14-11-1 when favored by eight or fewer points. At home, they are 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS when favored by eight or fewer points.

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Prediction and Picks

Warriors vs Celtics Prediction: Celtics to win

Warriors vs Celtics Picks: Celtics -6.5 (Best Value: BetOnline) & Warriors/Celtics over (Best Value: over 240 @ BetUS)

I have already tackled why I like the Celtics to cover tonight, even though 78% of our aggregated picks sources for this matchup favor the Warriors to cover.

And even though 70% of our picks sources for Warriors-Celtics favor the under in this matchup, I quite like the over.

In Golden State’s current road swing, the first three games finished with combined point totals of 257, 250, and 245, and the over is 15-7-0 in Boston’s home games and 17-3-2 in Golden State’s away games this season.

Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Player Props

• Jayson Tatum over 31.5 points (Best Value: BetUS)
• Jayson Tatum over 8.5 rebounds (Best Value: BetOnline)

Tatum scored a season-high 51 points against the Charlotte Hornets on Monday, and he has had 34, 32, 31, 20, 33, and 51 in his last six games. So, it only feels right to back the over on his points prop.

But I also like his rebounds prop, especially when BetOnline has some especially nice odds (plus odds at the time of writing, compared to -115 and shorter elsewhere).

Tatum has had 10, 11, nine, and nine boards in his last four games, and in his three previous Thursday games this season, he has 11, 14, and 11 boards.

Other NBA Content at Betting News

• Today’s NBA Odds
• NBA Picks for Today
• Chicago Bulls vs Detroit Pistons Prediction, Picks & Player Props