Bucks vs Pacers NBA Analysis, Odds, and Best Bet (4/22)

We’ve got a Tuesday night game 2 in the first round of the NBA playoffs. The Bucks try to even the series at a game a piece. Pacers host Giannis and company inside of Indiana’s Fieldhouse.

Let’s talk playoff hoops, baby.

Game Information

• Gainbridge Fieldhouse Indianapolis, IN
• Milwaukee Bucks visit the Indiana Pacers
• Previous Matchup: IND 117-98 April 19th, 2025
• Indiana Leads the Series 1-0

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Milwaukee Bucks @ Indiana Pacers

In game one, the Bucks were without Damian Lillard, and the other guys failed to step up. Giannis Antetokounmpo was fantastic but came away with only one assist on 8 potentials. The Bucks offence looked poor as they struggled shooting from the arc and the line. Indiana won the rebounding battle and ran away with it at home. They had a big lead at half and if it wasn’t for Milwaukee’s third quarter this final score would have been more lopsided.

As time expired players began exchanging explicative words. Expect this one to be chippy and heated.

Keeping Up with Kyle Kuzma

The former NBA champion was supposed to be a key acquisition that would provide Milwaukee momentum toward contention. Instead, he failed to record anything in the box score besides minutes and fouls. In 21 minutes he was a team worst -24 when on the floor.

Similarly, Michael Porter Jr. was criticized for his game one performance out West. He responded with 15 and 15 in a heartbreaking loss. Kyle Kuzma could bounce back too. If he doesn’t then the Bucks have no chance in this series. Even with Damian Lillard making a surprising but welcome return.

Dame Time Returns

Damian Lillard has reportedly made a speedy recovery from deep vein thrombosis that caused him to take blood thinners. He hasn’t played since March 18. Heres a quick breakdown of how everything transpired for the Bucks guard:

#FearTheDeer G Damian Lillard may be the first athlete to return from DVT after stopping anticoagulation in just 3 weeks—faster than ever! Let’s break it down. pic.twitter.com/neYUlwAK1N

— MEDspiration (@MEDspirationNFP) April 18, 2025

Tyrese Haliburton and Lillard exchanged words near the end of game one. It will be interesting to see how the 34-year-old plays after weeks away.

Damian Lillard — Tyrese Haliburton. 🍿

pic.twitter.com/c8c1d5m8TN

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) April 19, 2025

Damian Lillard played in four regular season games against the Pacers. Lillard averaged just 18.3 points in those contests. Moreover, his shooting splits left a lot to be desired. The aging superstar shot only 35.5% overall and 38.9% from three. However, he did put up 9.3 assists per game.

NBA Game Analysis

Milwaukee only shot 9-37 (24.3%) from three in game one except the larger concern is their ability to defend.

The Bucks need to find some defence if they want to make noise in this series. Indiana has is tied for first in assist-to-turnover ratio while being 5th in True Shooting %. They’re an efficient offensive killer. Furthermore, They are also 5th in fast break points. Doc Rivers needs his team to step up defensively and he needs to coach them up. They need to make plays on Indiana’s guards. Indiana conceded only three points off turnovers in game 1. Milwaukee had just two more turnovers than Indy (10-8) but a 10 point differential in points conceded.

Milwaukee also lost the fast break battle 22-5.

Giannis can score 50 and this team could still lose. They need to find a way to make it harder for Indiana to play their game offensively. Haliburton went 0-7 from three. Meaning, Milwaukee should fear the fact the Indiana might still have another gear. Unfortunately, I am not sure the Milwaukee Bucks have the right roster configuration to defend at the level needed in the playoffs. Ultimately, if they don’t defend at a high level tonight they’ll go home down 2-0.

Conversely, Indiana’s path to victory is to let that high powered engine keep revving while defending the three like they did in game one. The Pacers were 26th in points in the paint allowed this year. They would be smart to let Giannis do damage while staying home on shooters. Andrew Nembhard and Myles Turner add defensive playmaking that turns into quick offence off steals and blocks.

In conclusion, Rick Carlisle just needs to implore to his club to do more of the same and they could go deep into the playoffs again this year.

Key Outlier.Bet Insights

• The Indiana Pacers are 14-2 in their last 16 games at home. Gainbridge Fieldhouse is one of the most difficult buildings in the association to steal a win in.
• The Indiana Pacers are 4-9 against the spread in their last 13 games as the favourite. This team has a great offence but their defence can slip down to mediocre. This series is in no way over as Giannis and Dame will still have their say.

NBA Best Bet: IND Pacers -4.0 (-110)

The Pacers made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals last year surprising the entire association. I don’t believe that to be a fluke and I am a fan of this team and how they play. At home against a poorly constructed roster they should win. They proved they had the blueprint in game one and that’s why I am backing them again today. Be weary as I was very wrong about the Nuggets last night.

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