NASCAR Xfinity Series Hard Rock Bet 300 Predictions & Picks
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Updated: Sat Mar 22, 2025, 11:30 AM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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After trekking from Texas to Arizona to Nevada in the last few weeks, NASCAR is back in the Eastern time zone this weekend for a couple of zips around Homestead-Miami Speedway. First up down in sunny south Florida is the sixth race of the Xfinity Series season, today’s Hard Rock Bet 300 (4:00 pm ET, The CW).
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The first five races of the season have produced five different winners. Last week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, reigning Xfinity Series champion Justin Allgaier vroom-vroomed to Victory Lane for the first time this season as he took the checkered flag in The LiUNA! for his 26th career Xfinity Series win.
The champ is atop the points standings through five races, followed by Jesse Love, Sam Mayer, Austin Hill, and Sammy Smith, who owns only one top-five finish thus far but has picked up 38 stage points.
From 2022 to 2024, this race was a part of the Xfinity Series playoffs, but it has been bumped out of the playoffs and to the spring in a shakeup of the schedule. Last October, Hill took the win in this race, with Cole Custer, Aric Almirola, Love, and Creed rounding out the top five.
Odds to Win the NASCAR Xfinity Series 2025 Hard Rock Bet 300
Odds are courtesy of Bovada.
- Kyle Larson -150
- Sheldon Creed +800
- Austin Hill +850
- Justin Allgaier +900
- Connor Zilisch +1400
- Jesse Love +1600
- Sam Mayer +1600
- Carson Kvapil +2200
- Brandon Jones +2800
- Sammy Smith +2800
- Ryan Sieg +3300
- Corey Heim +4000
- Taylor Gray +4500
- Christian Eckes +5000
- Justin Bonsignore +5000
- Nick Sanchez +7500
- William Sawalich +8000
- Harrison Burton +10000
Hard Rock Bet 300 Predictions & Picks
Harrison Burton to finish in the top ten
In pre-qualifying odds, this bet was available at +400. If you snagged it at those odds, you made a smart decision.
In his first five races back in NASCAR’s second-tier series, Burton has three top-ten finishes. Taking him to make it four in six is a low-risk, high-reward option.
This is the third race on a 1.5-mile oval thus far this season, and in the first two, Burton finished tenth at Atlanta Motor Speedway and eighth last week at LVMS.
Justin Allgaier to finish in the top five
This might seem inconceivable given the success that he has had in his Xfinity Series career, but Allgaier has zero top-five finishes in 16 career Xfinity Series starts at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
There is a first time for everything, however, and if it’s going to happen, there’s no better time than today. In addition to his win last week, he finished second to Austin Hill at Atlanta Motor Speedway in the other 1.5-mile oval race this season.
In pre-qualifying odds, this was available at evens. Given his current form, that is very decent value even if he has yet to record a top five at this track.
Sam Mayer to finish in the top five
In his first five races for the Haas Factory Team, Mayer has three top fives and four top tens. Had his day at Atlanta not been ended by an accident with 22 laps to go, he likely would be five for five with top tens and potentially four for five with top fives.
With that in mind, pre-qualifying odds of +150 for him to land in the top five in the Hard Rock Bet 300 are wild. Also, while his time at JR Motorsports only counts for so much now, it is worth noting that in his three fall visits there from 2022 to 2024, he finished fifth, first, and ninth.
Oh, where is this week’s winner pick? That is being given a miss this week with Kyle Larson in the field and a firm favorite. But if a non-Larson option was chosen, it would be Hill. Were Aric Almirola in the #19 this week and not Justin Bonsignore, he would also be a top contender after finishing third (Atlanta), first (Phoenix), and second (Las Vegas), but we’ll see him back in the car soon enough.
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