NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 Predictions & Picks: Who Will Triumph at Talladega?

Next to Daytona, Talladega is the track many will likely think of when it comes to notable NASCAR racetracks. Over the years, there have been many memorable races there. Will today’s GEICO 500 (3:00 pm ET, FOX) become the latest?

Through the first nine races of the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series, there have been six different winners. Only two, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott, who have won both the GEICO 500 and the YellaWood 500, the fall race, have won a Cup Series race at Talladega. So, there’s a good chance that someone will register their first win of the season today.

Last week, that was Elliott, who claimed his first win since the 2022 YellaWood 500 by taking the checkered flag in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway.

Elliott, who qualified ninth for the GEICO 500, will have the best starting position of any of the four Hendrick Motorsports cars, with Alex Bowman 12^th, William Byron 13^th, and Kyle Larson starting 38^th and last in the field.

Larson went to Talladega seeking to claim his fourth straight pole, but unapproved alterations to the roof rails resulted in his demotion to the back of the field, as well as the ejection of his crew chief, Jesse Saunders and a pass-through penalty for the start of today’s race.

Odds to Win the 2024 GEICO 500

Polesitter in bold.

• Joey Logano +900
• Ryan Blaney +900
• Denny Hamlin +1100
• Brad Keselowski +1100
• William Byron +1100
• Chase Elliott +1400
• Bubba Wallace +1400
• Kyle Larson +1600
• Kyle Busch +1600
• Michael McDowell +1800
• Martin Truex Jr. +2000
• Christopher Bell +2000
• Ross Chastain +2000
• Ty Gibbs +2200
• Chris Buescher +2200
• Tyler Reddick +2200
• Alex Bowman +2500
• Erik Jones +2800
• Austin Dillon +2800
• Austin Cindric +2800
• Todd Gilliland +2800
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2800
• Daniel Suarez +3300
• Chase Briscoe +4000

Check out the rest of the Andy’s Frozen Custard 300 odds at BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites.

Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then snag some extra cash (100% welcome bonus if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on tonight’s race at Texas Motor Speedway.

GEICO 500 Predictions and Picks

There aren’t many races where one can overcome a pass-through penalty and having to start from the rear of the field to contend for a win, but this is one of them.

Between the potential for crashes and cautions and all of the movement that can occur in a superspeedway race, Larson, who has an 18-point lead over Truex atop the points standings, could still have a positive day. As it happens, he is still -150 (at BetOnline) to finish in the top ten, which you won’t see in this scenario at many other tracks.

Were his odds longer, this would be a good opportunity to get in on some value. Alas, the value is not there.

However, it is there for both Bell and Bowman. Bowman has four top-ten finishes in the last six editions of the GEICO 500, and +100 is solid value when he is starting from a decent position.

Bell is also +100 for a top-ten finish, and that is also solid value both given his starting position (10^th) and the fact that it is rare for him to go three consecutive races without a top-ten finish. He finished 35^th at Martinsville and 17^th last week, so I expect him to be back in the top ten this week.

With the potential for things to get a little wild and wacky, this is one spot where you shouldn’t commit too much to a single race winner pick.

That said, in addition to the usual suspects (the Hendrick cars/Hamlin/four-time GEICO 500 winner Brad Keselowski), I’ll sprinkle a little bit on the two Austins (Dillon and Cindric), who will start second and fifth, as well as Bubba Wallace and, just for the heck of it, Shane van Gisbergen.

Other NASCAR Betting Information

Where Can You Bet on NASCAR This Season?

NASCAR odds are widely available, as many sports betting sites offer race winner odds for the NASCAR Cup Series, NASCAR Xfinity Series, and NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series.

Additionally, sportsbooks like BetOnline, BetUS, and Bovada offer finishing position odds for each of NASCAR’s top national series. For example, you can bet on top 3 and top 10 finishing position odds for the GEICO 500 at BetOnline.

Are you unfamiliar with any of them? Check out our sportsbook reviews to learn more about each book. Our sportsbook reviews cover betting options, deposit and payout options, mobile and live betting, and the kind of sportsbook sign-up bonuses and other promos available at each book, as well as other factors like customer support.

• BetOnline Sportsbook Review
• BetUS Sportsbook Review
• Bovada Sportsbook Review

Other NASCAR Betting Content at Betting News

Are you new to betting on NASCAR? Use our in-depth NASCAR betting guide to learn more about the basics about betting on the Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and Truck Series.

Did you like this betting breakdown of the GEICO 500? At Betting News, you can find coverage for every Cup Series race, as well as many Xfinity Series and Truck Series races. So, bookmark us and come back for more next week. It is still early in the season, and there is a lot of money to be made this season. Strap in, enjoy the ride, and last but certainly not least, bet responsibly.