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Volkanovski vs. Topuria Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | UFC 298: Will the Champion Retain?
Written by: Devon Platana
Last Updated:
Read Time: 6 minutes
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This Volkanovski vs Topuria prediction for UFC 298 is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the UFC to boxing and everything in between.
UFC 298 is just over 24 hours away, broadcasting live from the Honda Center in Anaheim, CA on Saturday night. Tomorrow’s card is filled with big-time bouts, but none are bigger than the featherweight championship main event between Alexander Volkanovski and the undefeated Ilia Topuria.
Volkanovski vs Topuria 🔥 #UFC298 pic.twitter.com/OjWqUmVjVk
— UFC Türkiye 🇹🇷 (@ufc_turkiye) February 16, 2024
Volkanovski heads into Saturday night looking to make his sixth consecutive UFC Featherweight title defense as he inches closer to the five-year mark of his reign. Meanwhile, Topuria is currently the No. 3-ranked fighter in the division and is gunning for a 15th straight win to begin his MMA career.
With a ton of betting opportunities on the table this weekend, Betting News has your Volkanovski vs. Topuria needs covered. Keep scrolling for my UFC 298 main event predictions and best bets.
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria Betting Odds
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, Feb. 16 at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Volkanovski vs Topuria Moneyline
- Alexander Volkanovski (-126)
- Ilia Topuria (+106)
Will Volkanovski vs Topuria Go the Distance?
- Yes (+130)
- No (-160)
Volkanovski vs Topuria Round Total
- Over 3.5 Rounds (-130)
- Under 3.5 Rounds (+100)
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UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria Fight Preview
As MMA enthusiasts brace for fireworks in Anaheim, oddsmakers project the UFC 298 main event to be a close one. While BetOnline currently favors Volkanovski to successfully retain his featherweight gold, his -126 moneyline odds carry an implied win probability of just 55.8%.
Volkanovski has been one of the most dominant UFC fighters of the last decade, going 13-2 since debuting back in 2016. In fact, he had even won 12 consecutive fights before failing to beat Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title at UFC 284, losing by unanimous decision.
Although “The Great” bounced back with a TKO victory over Yair Rodriguez to unify the UFC Featherweight Championship in his following bout, he couldn’t build off that momentum. He most recently came up short in a rematch against Makhachev at UFC 294, this time losing via first-round knockout.
Having said that, the 35-year-old Australian has yet to lose at the featherweight level in his career, leaving time to tell if he can keep that trend going on at UFC 298.
On the other hand, Topuria still has yet to taste defeat, period, throughout his nine-year career.
“El Matador” has absolutely run through his first six UFC opponents, finishing four of them while winning twice via unanimous decision. Four of Topuria’s last five opponents couldn’t even survive two rounds with the 27-year-old German with two of those bouts ending via first-round KO.
Volkanovski might have more experience, but Topuria is nearly a decade younger than the champion. Hell, Volkanovski even joked about it by dressing up as an old man for Thursday’s news conference.
Alex Volkanovski responds to criticism about being “too old” in hilarious commercial ahead of #UFC298. 😂 pic.twitter.com/xcx0dIV2di
— Parry Punch (@ParryPunchNews) February 9, 2024
Topuria also lands 4.44 significant strikes per minute with 46% accuracy while absorbing 3.05 with 67% defense. On the other hand, Volkanovski averages 6.19 strikes with 57% accuracy while eating 3.42 with 58% strike defense.
Having said that, Topuria’s grappling numbers are slightly better with 2.19 takedowns per 15 minutes with 56% accuracy and 92% defense. Volkanovski, meanwhile, averages 1.84, 37%, and 70%, respectively.
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria Prop Bets & Betting Trends
Although the moneyline indicates who’s more likely to win the UFC 298, it doesn’t tell the whole story about how the fight may unfold. Fortunately, BetOnline’s Volkanovski vs. Topuria prop bets help shed some more light.
For starters, BetOnline is predicting that Volkanovski and Topuria won’t reach the five-round limit, favoring that it won’t go the distance (-160). Interestingly enough, 12 of Topuria’s 14 previous fights featured some sort of finish while only two of the champion’s last five fights went the distance.
Regarding the method of victory, Volkanovski is favored to win by either points or KO/TKO at +250 odds. He’s won nearly the same amount of fights with each method, picking up 13 KO/TKO victories and 10 decision wins over the last 12 years.
Enjoy Volkanovski mixing kicks with the punches and punches with the kicks
— 🌴ᴛʜᴇᴀʀᴛᴏꜰᴡᴀʀ🌴 (@TheArtOfWar6) February 15, 2024
As for Topuria, his top victory method is a KO/TKO win at +300 odds. Although the 27-year-old “only” has four KO/TKO victories to his name, it’s worth noting that three of those came within his last five fights.
If you want to juice up your odds by a bit, Volkanovski is most likely to win by knockout in Round 1 (+800). Of his 13 career KO/TKO wins, five came within the opening frame of a fight.
Meanwhile, a KO/TKO win for Topuria is also most likely to occur in the first round, something he’s done three times.
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs Topuria Prediction & Best Bet
While Topuria will put up a solid effort, I’m taking Volkanovski to retain. Yes, he’s coming off a knockout loss to Makhachev, but it’s worth noting that Volkanovski took that fight on short notice. He’s still the greatest featherweight in UFC history while being undefeated in that weight class and is still one of the best pound-for-pound fighters at the moment.
Topuria has had a good run, but he hasn’t fought anyone on Volkanovski’s level yet.
I’m comfortable with taking Volkanovski outright, however, I could also see him winning via points. I just don’t think Topuria has enough experience for a five-round bout considering how 12 of his 14 career outings ended in Round 2 or earlier.
The longer this fight goes, the more it favors the champion, which will ultimately lead to another successful defense for Volkanovski.
Volkanovski vs Topuria Prediction: Volkanovski wins
Volkanovski vs Topuria Best Bet: Volkanovski ML (-126) or via Points (+250)
Get 50% up to $1,000 on this UFC 298 pick over on BetOnline
UFC 298 Preview FAQ
When is UFC 298?
- UFC 298 will take place on Saturday, Feb. 17, 2024.
Where is UFC 298?
- UFC 298 will take place at Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.
What time does UFC 298 start?
- Early Prelims Start: 6:30 p.m. ET
- Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET
How can I watch UFC 298?
- Early prelims: ESPN+
- Preliminary card: ESPN+, ESPN
- Main card: ESPN+, pay-per-view
How can I bet on UFC 298?
- All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 298 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA bettors.
Devon is a Master of Journalism graduate who joined the sports betting world in 2020. His favorite leagues to cover are the NHL, NBA and NFL, and has a soft spot for fantasy football specifically. Outside of sports, he enjoys the finer things in life like pasta, live music and getting even more tattoos.
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