UFC Vegas 76 Preliminary Card Prediction and Best Bets: Where’s the Best Early Value?

UFC Vegas 76 is just over 48 hours away from invading the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. MMA fans are rightfully looking forward to the main card headlined by Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov, however, there are also several preliminary fights worth checking out.

Both coming to make a statement Saturday 😤@SStricklandMMA and @OfficialAbus ready for our #UFCVegas76 main event! pic.twitter.com/ajYVFSyMPt

— UFC (@ufc) June 28, 2023

Fortunately, Betting News has gathered the latest odds for all of the UFC Vegas 76 preliminary card fights, along with our prediction for each matchup.

UFC Vegas 76 Preliminary Card & Odds (Odds as of Wednesday, June 28)

The UFC Vegas 76 odds listed below are as of 8:18 p.m. on Wednesday, June 28 via BetOnline.

Welterweight: Kevin Lee (+165) vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (-190)

Former TWC Lightweight Champion Kevin Lee (19-7) makes his UFC return after defeating Diego Sanchez by unanimous decision at Eagle FC 46. Standing in Lee’s way is none other than Rinat Fakhretdinov, who’s rattled off 19 consecutive victories ahead of UFC Vegas 76.

Rinat Fakhretdinov still stands by his decision to not fight any of his 'Muslim brothers,' but unfortunately he did not have a choice and had to fight Kevin Lee#UFCVegas76 pic.twitter.com/HT8rZ0WLG0

— MMA Mania (@mmamania) June 28, 2023

Although Lee is looking to make an impact in his return, I see Fakhretdinov taking the victory. Not only does the “Gladiator” have the three-inch height advantage, but he’s also the more accurate striker, boasting a 68% strike accuracy rate while Lee sits at 42%. Fakhretdinov also hasn’t come close to losing in a decade, whereas Lee went 2-5 in his final seven UFC fights.

I won’t be shocked if Fakhretdinov dominates this fight bell-to-bell, ultimately winning by unanimous decision.

Best Bet: Rinat Fakhretdinov to Win by Points (+165)

Featherweight: Joanderson Brito (-1400) vs. Westin Wilson (+800)

Joanderson Brito (14-3-1) is coming off back-to-back victories, defeating Andre Fili (by TKO) and Lucas Alexander (by submission) in the first round. Meanwhile, Westin Wilson (16-7) makes his UFC debut with 16 finishes (five by KO/TKO, 11 by submission) to his name.

Unfortunately for Wilson, his debut won’t go as planned. Brito is no joke. Not only he averaging 3.65 significant strikes per minute, but he’s also averaging 3.76 takedowns per 15 minutes with 70% accuracy. While Wilson is a solid grappler, he hasn’t faced an opponent on Brito’s level yet. Considering how Wilson has also been submitted four times, I like the Brazilian’s odds of winning.

After how quickly his last two fights ended, I won’t be shocked if Brito finishes this one within the first frame again.

Best Bet: Joanderson Brito to Win by First-Round Submission (+275)

Women’s Featherweight: Yana Santos (+145) vs. Karol Rosa (-170)

Yana Santos (14-7, 1NC) and Karol Rosa (16-5) could both use a win at UFC Vegas 76. Santos has lost back-to-back outings, most recently suffering a unanimous decision loss to Holly Holm back in March. At the same time, Rosa is 1-2 in her last three bouts and was unanimously outpointed by Norma Dumont in her latest fight.

In a fight that could likely go either way, Rosa is my pick to win. She’s at least won a fight within the last eight months, whereas Santos hasn’t been victorious since February 2021. Furthermore, Santos looked bad in her fight against Holm, getting outstruck and taken down four times.

With neither fighter finishing their opponents lately, Rosa will likely win this one by going the distance.

Best Bet: Karol Rosa to Win by Points (-115)

Lightweight: Guram Kutateladze (-700) vs. Elves Brener (+500)

Guram Kutateladze (12-3) is the heavy favorite as he attempts to rebound from his split-decision loss to Damir Ismagulov over a year ago. On the other side, Elves Brener (14-3) aims for consecutive UFC victories after his split-decision win over Zubaira Tukhugov at UFC 284.

Although Brener has momentum on his side, Kutateladze is capable of living up to the hype. He’s faced tougher opponents than Brener has and was on a nine-fight winning streak before his latest loss. As long as Kutateladze keeps the fight away from the mat, he owns all the tools to outhit Brener. Fortunately for the Georgian, his 70% takedown defense indicates that he has what it takes to remain on his feet.

However, I feel more comfortable taking a neutral approach due to the run that Brener is on, so let’s go with this fight going the distance as the best bet.

Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance (-135)

Women’s Flyweight: Ivana Petrovic (-220) vs. Luana Carolina (+185)

Ivana Petrovic (6-0) is set for her debut after making her latest two opponents submit. She faces a five-year UFC veteran in Luana Carolina (8-4), who’s coming off a split-decision loss against Joanne Wood at UFC 286.

I’m backing Petrovic to win her debut at UFC Vegas 76. It’s just hard trusting Carolina, who’s been outhit a combined 216-164 in back-to-back losses, also getting taken down four times over that stretch. Petrovic is a competitor who can beat the opposition on the ground or on her feet, having won twice by submission and thrice by KO/TKO.

If Petrovic can get off to a hot start, I won’t be surprised if she wins this one inside the distance.

Best Bet: Ivana Petrovic to Win Inside the Distance (+200)

Heavyweight: Alexander Romanov (-135) vs. Blagoy Ivanov (+115)

Alexander Romanov (16-2) and Blagoy Ivanov (19-5, 1NC) are two top-15 heavyweight fighters looking to rise up the rankings. Having said that, they both need turnaround performances. Romanov is coming off two straight losses after beginning his career with a 16-0 start, whereas Ivanov owns a 1-3 record in his previous four bouts.

I like Romanov’s chances of bouncing back in Sin City. It’s important to remember that his latest losses came against Marcin Tybura and Alexander Volkov, who are two of the top heavyweights today. He’ll also be hungry to make a statement after getting knocked out in his latest outing and a determined Romanov is a scary person to mess with.

Ivanov will put up a fight, but I’m counting on Romanov to prove his doubters wrong.

Best Bet: Alexander Romanov to Win Outright (-135)

UFC Vegas 76 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 76?

UFC Vegas 76 will take place on Saturday, July 1, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 76?

UFC Vegas 76 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 76 start?

• UFC Vegas 76 Preliminary Card Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC Vegas 76’s Main Card: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 76?

Both UFC Vegas 76 main and preliminary cards can be viewed on ESPN and ESPN+.

More UFC Content on Betting News

• UFC Vegas 76 Card, Fight Previews, Odds, and Schedule
• UFC Vegas 76: Sean Strickland vs Abus Magomedov Fight Prediction, Odds & Picks