Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill Prediction, Odds & Picks for UFC Vegas 73

UFC Vegas 73 is just days away as the top MMA promotion in the world returns to the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The UFC is, once again, bringing another stacked card to Sin City, highlighted by a women’s strawweight main event between former submission grappling gold medalist Mackenzie Dern and ex-Invicta FC Strawweight Champion Angela Hill.

The official poster for #UFCVegas73 has DROPPED!

Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill headlines. Who’ve you got?#UFC #WMMA pic.twitter.com/efZUKrrKWa

— Women’s MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) May 10, 2023

This fight was actually supposed to take place last week at UFC on ABC 4, but was moved to this weekend once Irene Aldana — who was supposed to headline with Raquel Pennington — was named as the replacement to face Amanda Nunes at UFC 289. Now, Dern and Hill look to make waves this weekend as both women look to take one step closer to their first-ever UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship opportunity.

In what should be an exciting showdown, Dern vs Hill doesn’t have any shortage of betting opportunities. Here’s a look at the latest odds for the UFC Vegas 73 main event from a handful of reputable sportsbooks, as well as a prediction and the best bet(s) for the fight.

Dern vs Hill— Tale of the Tape

Mackenzie Dern — Angela Hill

• Record: 12-3 — 15-12
• Height: 5’4” — 5’3”
• Reach: 63” — 64”
• Weight: 115lbs — 115lbs
• Age: 30 — 38
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 0 — 5

UFC Vegas 73: Dern vs Hill Fight Odds (as of Wednesday, May 17)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Mackenzie Dern -186
• Angela Hill +144

Bovada Sportsbook

• Mackenzie Dern -170
• Angela Hill +145

BetUS

• Mackenzie Dern -190
• Angela Hill +150

BetMGM

• Mackenzie Dern -175
• Angela Hill +145

Dern vs Hill Fighter History

All four of the highlighted sports are siding with Dern as the favorite ahead of the UFC Vegas 73 main event. The 30-year-old submission artist is available at an average of -180 odds across the four sources, translating to an implied win probability of 64.3%.

After getting her MMA career off to a 5-0 start, Dern found immediate success in the UFC. She handled most of the opponents put in her way early on, winning six of her first seven fights under the promotion’s umbrella. Even more impressive is the fact that she won four of those bouts by first-round submission.

Unfortunately, Dern’s had a tough time finishing off her opponents lately. She’s gone the distance in each of her last three outings, picking up two losses along the way. She defeated Tecia Torres by split decision after losing to Marina Rodriguez unanimously.

She wasn’t able to build off that victory, though, losing to Yan Xiaonan by majority decision in the main event of UFC Vegas 61.

Although Hill has been with the UFC since 2017, she hasn’t exactly found much success. She’s the perfect example of a streaky fighter, in all honesty. She’s gone on short winning bursts only to follow them up with consecutive losses, leading to a 7-10 record through her first 17 UFC bouts.

Having said that, Hill has begun to pick up some steam. It all started when she took Lupita Godinez to the distance at UFC San Diego back in August, winning by unanimous decision.

Hill then followed that win up with another unanimous decision victory four months later, this time against fellow former Invicta FC Strawweight Champion Emily Ducote.

It’s going to be interesting to see if Hill can withstand her opponent’s grappling skills at UFC Vegas 73. Dern averages 1.8 submissions per 15 minutes and has picked up seven of her previous 12 victories by submitting the opposition. On the flip side, Hill has a 77% takedown defense rate and hasn’t been submitted in four years.

Only time will tell if Hill’s newfound momentum will be enough to propel her to victory.

UFC Vegas 73 Betting Markets & Trends for Dern vs Hill

The relatively close odds across the board mean there’s some decent moneyline value for the UFC Vegas 73 main event. At the same time, sites like BetOnline Sportsbook offer a large variety of Dern vs Hill markets that provide even more value.

When it comes to the likeliest victory method, Dern is favored to win by submission at +180 odds. Again, 58.3% of her career victories have come by submission. Nevertheless, she’s gone three consecutive fights without a submission victory.

As for Hill, her top method of victory is winning by points at +210. This isn’t too surprising considering that her last two wins have come by unanimous decision, as well as the fact that each of her previous nine fights has gone the distance.

Speaking of which, BetOnline Sportsbook is favoring that this fight will go the distance at -138 odds. In 42 combined fights between Dern and Hill, 28 of those bouts wound up reaching the time limit.

For those who don’t think the fight will go the distance, method & round combo betting is for you. Under this market, Dern is favored to win by first-round submission at +600 odds. Of her seven career submission victories, all but one of them have occurred in the opening frame.

Dern vs Hill UFC Vegas 73 Fight Prediction

Although Hill has more momentum on her side, Dern’s grappling skills have me siding with her at UFC Vegas 73. Hill might be the better striker, but she lacks finishing ability. Dern will withstand whatever her opponent has to dish out while using her grappling arsenal to tire her out.

As for the best bet, I’m taking Dern to win by submission at +180 odds. She knows how to break down her opponents and now faces Hill, who’s submitted twice in her career.

If that’s too risky, you can also take Dern to win by submission or points at -180 odds. After all, both fighters have gone the distance more often than not lately, and with it having been a while since Hill was finished, I won’t be shocked if Dern wins by points.

UFC Vegas 73 Event Details

When is UFC Vegas 73?

UFC Vegas 73 will take place on Saturday, May 20, 2023.

Where is UFC Vegas 73?

UFC Vegas 73 will take place at the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC Vegas 73 start?

• UFC Vegas 73 Preliminary Card Start Time: 4 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC Vegas 73’s Main Card: 7 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Vegas 73?

Both the UFC 79 preliminary and main cards can be viewed exclusively on ESPN+.

Other UFC Vegas 73 Articles on Betting News

• UFC Vegas 73 Full Card Preview, Odds, and Schedule