UFC on ESPN+ 27: Benavdiez vs. Figueiredo Betting Tips

UFC on ESPN+ 27 (Fight Night 169) will host a main event title fight between Joseph Benavidez and Deiveson Figueiredo. The fight will be presented at the Chartway Arena in Norfolk, Va., on Feb. 29. 

The flyweight championship belt is currently homeless since the previous champion, Henry Cejudo, decided to relinquish the title to defend his other bantamweight title. 

Odds for the Main Event 

With a vacant flyweight title up for grabs, anything is possible, and these two both deserve it. The odds for Benavidez and Figueiredo have been placed at:

• Benavidez: -130
• Figueiredo: +108

* odds are subject to change

Tale of the Tape

Joseph Benavidez (28-5-0) has climbed his way to currently being the overall ranked fighter in the Flyweight division. He has staggered eight wins by knockout and nine by submission. 

He has been around a long time and has fought some of the best fighters from this division and even beat the previous flyweight champion. 

He has a striking accuracy of 34 percent and a grappling accuracy of 30 percent. He has a significant strike defense of 63 percent and a takedown defense of 66 percent. 

He averages 0.60 submissions every 15 minutes, and he also averages 1.45 takedowns every 15 minutes. 

Deiveson “Deus Da Guerra” Figueiredo (17-1-0) has also made his way up the division, while currently being the third best fighter in the flyweight division. He has eight wins by knockout and five wins by submission. 

He has a striking accuracy of 52 percent and a grappling accuracy of 50 percent. He has a significant strike defense of 56% and a takedown defense of 59 percent. His submission average is 2.27 every 15 minutes. He also averages 1.86 takedowns every 15 minutes. 

Who Comes Out On Top?

These two fighters have similar fighting styles and impressive wins throughout the course of their careers. On paper, they have some subtle differences. 

They both have a similar average fight time of a little over 12 minutes. Figueiredo has a slight reach advantage of 68 inches compared to a 65-inch reach of Benavidez. 

Figueiredo has a better knockdown ratio than Benavidez at 1.03 compared to 0.40. Benavidez has a better ratio of significant strikes landed and absorbed at 3.45 and 2.54, while Figueiredo is at 2.43 landed and 2.15 absorbed. 

Benavidez definitely knows how to land his hits while protecting himself. 

Benavidez is a little more balanced when placing significant strikes, with 54 percent going to the opponent’s head and 26 percent to the body. Figueiredo places his attempts 69 percent of his significant strikes to the head while 28 percent go to his opponent’s body. 

One thing that is a little concerning for Figueiredo is that he will definitely be the aggressor here, and Benavidez will be playing it smart. He has done well in taking out his opponents this far and should stick to what he does best. 

Benavidez will most likely try to avoid a striking match because I do not believe he is as quick as Figueiredo. 

Overall, these two fighters have the potential to make this a great fight. This fight could also last a few rounds and maybe even the entire five. However, I believe that Figueiredo will be able to find an opening and use that powerful right hand to disrupt Benavidez. 

If this turns into a ground game, I believe Benavidez has the advantage, and he surely will anyway since he has the experience to win in any situation. 

Winning Pick: Deiveson Figueiredo Wins By TKO