Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili UFC Fight Night 221 Fight Prediction & Picks: Expect a Lengthy Fight at the Theater

UFC Fight Night 221 takes over the Theater at Virgin Hotels in Paradise, Nevada on Saturday, March 11. There’s an exciting fight card in store for MMA enthusiasts, headlined by a bantamweight main event between Petr Yan (16-4) and Merab Dvalishvili (15-4).

So, Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili have a meeting in fighters hotel before the fight. Respect. pic.twitter.com/5cTKn9TYhg

— Bruno Massami (Бруно Массами) (@BrMassami) March 8, 2023

A victory for either man could mean a UFC Bantamweight title match in the near future. After all, Yan heads into the fight as the UFC’s No. 2-ranked bantamweight while Dvalishvili shits at No. 3 in the division.

There’s a lot to consider before Jones and Gane go head-to-head — especially from a betting perspective. Fortunately, Betting News has you covered with the UFC Fight Night 221 main event’s latest odds, as well as a prediction and the best bets for the fight.

UFC Fight Night 221: Yan vs Dvalishvili Fight Odds (as of Friday, March 10)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Petr Yan -280
• Merab Dvalishvili +220

Bovada Sportsbook

• Petr Yan -260
• Merab Dvalishvili +210

BetUS

• Petr Yan -275
• Merab Dvalishvili +210

BetMGM

• Petr Yan -275
• Merab Dvalishvili +210

Odds Favor Former UFC Bantamweight Champion

In what should be a hard-hitting contest, Yan enters as the unanimous favorite across all four highlighted sportsbooks. His shortest odds to win sit at -280 on BetOnline Sportsbook, carrying an implied probability of 73.7%.

Despite being the favorite, winning isn’t something that Yan has done recently. The 30-year-old Russian fighter has gone 1-3 in his last four fights.

After losing the UFC Bantamweight Championship by disqualification to Aljamain Sterling by disqualification, Yan bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Cory Sandhagen to win the interim bantamweight title. Unfortunately, he followed that victory up with back-to-back split-decision losses to Sterling and Sean O'Malley.

Nevertheless, Yan is still a terrific fighter and has yet to be decisively defeated. He also has the experience of holding gold twice in the UFC, which is something that his upcoming opponent has yet to do.

If @PetrYanUFC lands… 😳

Only 3 days until Yan walks into the Octagon to face Merab Dvalishvili! Who you got?

📺📱 #UFCLasVegas | Live Sunday on ESPN and @UFCFightPass pic.twitter.com/jRRE1xfVTq

— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) March 9, 2023

Although the odds are in Yan’s favor, you can’t sleep on Dvalishvili either. He heads into this weekend on an eight-fight winning streak. He hasn’t tasted defeat in nearly five years and hopes to keep that going with a win in the biggest matchup of his career.

While Yan enjoys finishing his opponents, Dvalishvili likes to outlast them. Seven of the 32-year-old’s last eight victories have come by unanimous decision. He most recently overcame former two-time UFC Featherweight Champion Jose Aldo in his last fight, meaning momentum is running high.

Dvalishvili also has the takedown advantage, averaging 6.54 per 15 minutes on 40% accuracy. Yan does have a 90% takedown defense rate, but don’t expect that to deter Dvalishvili from trying to get him on the mat.

At the end of the day, it’s going to be quite the competitive matchup. Both fighters have solid cases as to why they should win, but only time will tell who can pull it off.

UFC Fight Night 221 Betting Markets & Trends for Yan vs Dvalishvili

Although betting on the moneyline can be fun, that’s not always where the best value is. Fortunately, BetOnline Sportsbook has plenty of other Yan vs Dvalishvili markets to take advantage of ahead of this Saturday.

When it comes to the method of victory, Yan is favored to win the fight by points at +120 odds. After all, six of his last 10 fights have gone the distance. On top of that, he owns an 8-3 record whenever his fights reach some sort of decision.

On the flip side, Dvalishvili’s top victory method is also winning by points (+330). As mentioned before, the majority of his recent points are reaching the time limit and he’s been successful at winning them. Having said that, he’s also lost three times by decision in his career.

BetOnline is also in agreement that this should be a long fight, favoring that it will go the distance at -190 odds.

If you aren’t convinced that this will last all five, method & combo betting is your thing. In that market, Yan is favored to win by first-round KO/TKO at +1000 — something he’s only done twice in his career. Meanwhile, Dvalishvili’s best option in this market is winning by KO/TKO in Round 1 at +4100.

Yan vs Dvalishvili UFC Fight Night 221 Fight Prediction

Although both fighters are worthy of the victory, I’m siding with Yan standing tall at the end of the night. Dvalishvili is a great grappler, but Yan does have the defense to fend him off. The former bantamweight champion also has the striking advantage, plus his experience holding gold also gives him an edge in big-time matches.

As for the best bet, I’m going with Yan winning by points at +120 on BetOnline. Again, both fighters have seen lengthier matchups as of late. Yan has the endurance to hang with Dvalishvili and his motivation to win after back-to-back losses will be enough to push him to victory.

UFC Fight Night 221 Event Details

When is UFC Fight Night 221?

UFC Fight Night 221 will take place on Saturday, March 11, 2023.

Where is UFC Fight Night 221?

UFC Fight Night 221 will take place at the Theater at Virgin Hotels in Paradise, Nevada.

What time does UFC Fight Night 221 start?

• UFC Fight Night 221 Prelims Start Time: 3 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC Fight Night 221’s Main Card: 6 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC Fight Night 221?

Both the preliminary and main cards are available on ESPN+.