UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 Fight Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

UFC 311 is just over 24 hours away and MMA fans around the globe can’t wait for the UFC Lightweight title bout between Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. Saturday night marks the second collision between Makhachev and Tsarukyan, and everything you need to know about this fight — from the latest odds to my favorite bets — can be found in this betting preview.

Can Tsarukyan walk out of the Intuit Dome as the new champion? Or will Makhachev add yet another successful retention to his resume?

It’s Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 in the City of Angels tomorrow night, so let’s get into the action!

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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Betting Odds

All UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, Jan. 17 at 12:05 a.m.

• Moneyline: Islam Makhachev (-340) | Arman Tsarukyan (+265)
• Round total: 4.5 — Over (-175) | Under (+145)
• Most likely method of victory: Makhachev via points (-105)

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Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Tale of the Tape — Lightweight Title

Islam Makhachev (c) — Arman Tsarukyan

• Record: 26-1 — 22-3
• Height: 5’10” — 5’7”
• Reach: 70” — 72”
• Weight: 155 lbs — 155 lbs
• Age: 33 — 28
• Fighting Stance: Southpaw — Orthodox
• Knockouts: 5 — 9

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UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 Fight Preview & Info

As with most of his fights, Makhachev is the overwhelming favorite to walk out of the UFC 311 main event victorious. The lightweight champion’s -340 odds to retain against Tsarukyan — improving to 2-0 in the all-time series — on BetOnline carry an implied win probably of 77.3%!

These two competitors previously clashed at UFC Fight Night 149 in 2019. In what was deemed ‘Fight of the Night,’ Makhachev overcame Tsarukyan after three rounds to win unanimously. The Russian fighter controlled the fight for six minutes while leading in takedowns 4-1, leaving time to tell if he can repeat history tomorrow night.

Since that victory, Makhachev has won nine fights in a row, extending his win streak to 14 consecutive outings. His biggest victory came when he submitted Charles Oliveira at UFC 280 to capture the then-vacant lightweight championship. He’s since tallied a trio of successful defenses, most recently retaining via submission against Dustin Poirier at UFC 302.

Since that 2019 encounter, Tsarukyan has gone 9-1 in 10 fights. Five of those victories came by unanimous decision, and the other four were KO/TKO victories. He last stepped into the octagon at UFC 300, scoring a split-decision victory over Oliveira in a UFC Lightweight eliminator.

It’s the first time that the Tsarukyan will challenge for UFC gold, though.

The 5-foot-7 Georgian is, once again, at a size disadvantage against Makhachev, who stands three inches taller. While Tsarukyan has the edge in terms of strike volume, it’s the champion who’s the more accurate striker (59% vs. 48%) while also holding the edge defensively (61% vs. 53%).

Both men average over three takedowns per 15 minutes, however, Makhachev lands 53% of his attempts whereas Tsarukyan sits at 37%. That’s without mentioning how Makhachev is tough to get on the mat, proven by his having not been taken down in nearly four years. Tsarukyan learned that the hard way when he only succeeded on 1-of-12 takedown attempts during the duo’s initial encounter.

Unless Tsarukyan has a new game plan, history could very well repeat itself in Los Angeles.

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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Prop Bet Odds & Betting Trends

When it comes to the UFC 311 headlining act, BetOnline boasts a plethora of Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 prop bets that help shed more light on what could happen.

For example, the sportsbook is projected a lengthy fight as the championship bout is not only favored to go the distance (-150) but the Over on the 4.5-round total is also being favored. It isn’t surprising, though, given that Makhachev and Tsarukyan went the distance the last time they squared off.

Having said that, Makhachev is a perfect 9-0 when his fights reach the round limit while Tsarukyan is 8-2 in that regard.

That’s probably why the UFC Lightweight Champion winning by points (-105) is the most likely method of victory on the site.

If the fight doesn’t reach the time limit, Makhachev is most likely to win via submission (+300), which is something he’s done 12 times — including five times in his last eight outings. Conversely, though, Tsarukyan has never been submitted before.

Speaking of which, Tsarukyan’s top path toward a win is by knocking out the champion (+575). That’s likely because Makhachev’s lone loss came via KO against Adriano Martins at UFC 192. That was 10 years ago and Makhachev has yet to lose since then, not exactly boding well for the challenger’s outlook.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Predictions & Best Bet

It’s hard to argue against oddsmakers here: Makhachev will retain the UFC Lightweight title tomorrow night. He’s better than Tsarukyan across the board and even though over half a decade has passed since they last met, there’s no reason to believe the outcome will be any different.

Tsarukyan is a tough customer and I expect him to survive all five rounds, eventually losing to Makhachev via points — just like the first time.

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Prediction — Islam Makhachev wins

UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 Bet — Makhachev via Points (-105)

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UFC 311: Makhachev vs Tsarukyan 2 Schedule & FAQ

When is UFC 311?

• UFC 311 will take place on Saturday, Jan. 18, 2025.

Where is UFC 311?

• UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2 will air live from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California.

What time does UFC 311 start?

• UFC 311 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 311 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• UFC 311 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How to Watch UFC 311

• UFC 311 Early Prelims Channel: FX, Disney+, ESPN+
• UFC 311 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN+, ESPNEWS, FX, Disney+
• UFC 311 Main Card Channel: ESPN+, PPV

How to Bet on UFC 311

• All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 311 odds, but click here for some of the sites we recommend most for UFC betting enthusiasts.