UFC 300: Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill Fight Prediction, Odds & Best Bets

This Pereira vs. Hill prediction for UFC 300 is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the UFC to wrestling and everything in between.

It’s a milestone week in the MMA world as UFC 300 is set to take place on Saturday, April 13. The star-studded event taking place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas features UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Alex Pereira defending the gold against former titleholder Jamahal Hill.

IT'S FINALLY HERE 🙌

HAPPY #UFC300 FIGHT WEEK 🎉

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— UFC (@ufc) April 8, 2024

Saturday night’s main event features many betting opportunities, so Betting News is here to help you get started. Here’s a look at my Pereira vs. Hill fight prediction and the UFC 300 headlining act’s best bets.

UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill Betting Odds

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, April 10 at 11:20 a.m. ET.

Pereira vs Hill Moneyline

• Alex Pereira (-128)
• Jamahal Hill (+108)

Will Pereira vs Hill Go the Distance?

• Yes (+325)
• No (-450)

Pereira vs Hill Round Total

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-170)
• Under 1.5 Rounds (+140)

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Pereira vs Hill Tale of the Tape

Alex Pereira (c) — Jamahal Hill

• Record: 9-2 — 12-1, 1 NC
• Height: 6’4” — 6’4”
• Reach: 79” — 79”
• Weight: 205 lbs — 205 lbs
• Age: 36 — 32
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Southpaw
• Knockouts: 7 — 7

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UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill Fight Preview

The main event of the biggest pay-per-view in UFC history looks like it could go either way, according to oddsmakers. Alex Pereira might be the -128 favorite to retain the light heavyweight gold in Sin City, however, those odds carry an implied win probability of just 56.1%.

Pereira has turned his career around after dropping the middleweight championship to Israel Adesanya at UFC 287. “Hands of Stone” has since gone 2-0 following a transition to the light heavyweight division, first defeating Jan Błachowicz via split decision in his debut before TKO’ing Jiří Procházka at UFC 295 to win the then-vacant championship.

Pereira now boasts a 9-1 record across his last 10 fights with seven of those victories coming via knockout. Additionally, only three of those contests even made it beyond Round 1.

But even though Pereira has excelled as the champion, let’s not ignore what the challenger has done. Jamahall Hill has been nearly flawless through his first 14 MMA fights, only ever losing to Paul Craig (via TKO) at UFC 263.

It’s been nearly three years since that loss, though, and “Sweet Dreams” has dominated the competition since then. Hill is currently riding a four-fight winning streak into UFC 30, which includes knockout wins over Jimmy Crute, Johnny Walker, and Thiago Santos. His latest outing saw him score a unanimous decision victory over Glover Teixeira at UFC 283, winning the UFC Light Heavyweight title in the process.

Unfortunately, Hill never got to defend the championship even once. The 32-year-old veteran ruptured his Achilles while playing basketball last summer, resulting in his vacating the title that ultimately led to Pereira becoming champion.

Can Jamahal Hill regain the UFC Light Heavyweight championship this weekend? 

Physically, both competitors are an even match. Pereira and Hill both stand 6-foot-4 with a 79-inch reach while weighing 205 pounds. Having said that, the challenger is four years younger than the champion.

Hill also lands 7.31 significant strikes per minute with 54% accuracy with a 47% strike defense rate. While Pereira “only” averages 5.00 significant blows per 60 seconds, his accuracy (62%) and defense (50%) both eclipse the underdog’s marks.

Pereira is also the better grappler, averaging 0.19 takedowns with 100% accuracy per 15 minutes. Hill has yet to take an opponent down during his UFC run, however, he does own a 73% takedown defense rate.

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UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill Prop Bets & Betting Trends

There isn’t a shortage when it comes to Pereira vs. Hill prop bets. Not only do some of these props provide avenues for bigger paydays, but they also help shed some light on how the UFC 300 main event might unfold.

For example, BetOnline isn’t projecting a marathon fight. Not only does the projected round total sit at 1.5, but the sportsbook is also favoring that the bout won’t go the distance at -450 odds. It isn’t surprising given that Pereira and Hill boast 77.8% and 58.3% finish rates, respectively.

When it comes to a potential finish, BetOnline favors Pereira to win via KO/TKO at +125 odds. All but two of his career wins came with a knockout finish, including when he captured the title from Procházka.

As for Hill, he’s also most likely to win via KO/TKO, albeit at +160 odds. The Chicago, IL native owns seven career KO/TKO victories with three of them coming in his last four fights.

If Pereira does pick up the finish, it’s most likely to be a first-round KO/TKO victory (+400) — something he’s only done three times in his career.

Meanwhile, Hill sits at +700 odds to pick up a knockout win in Round 1. Of his seven KO/TKO victories, four occurred in the opening frame.

UFC 300: Pereira vs Hill Prediction & Best Bet

Although this fight could go either way, I’m taking Pereira to retain. Hill is a beast, but we still haven’t seen him in action since injuring his Achilles. He might have some cage rust to shake off and Pereira is more than capable of taking advantage of the situation.

With that in mind, I’ll take Pereira to win via KO/TKO as the best UFC 300 main event bet. It’s going to be a hard-hitting fight and I think that the champion’s barrage will be too much for Hill to handle following a near-15-month layoff.

Pereira vs Hill Prediction: Alex Pereira wins

Pereira vs Hill Best Bet: Pereira via KO/TKO (+125)

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UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill FAQ

When is UFC 300?

• UFC 300 will take place on Saturday, April 13, 2024.

Where is UFC 300?

• UFC 300 will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC 300 start?

• UFC 300 Early Prelims Start Time: 6 p.m. ET
• UFC 300 Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• UFC 300 Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How to Watch UFC 300

• UFC 300 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
• UFC 300 Preliminary Card Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
• UFC 300 Main Card Channel: ESPN+/PPV

How to Bet on UFC 300

• All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 300 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for UFC betting enthusiasts.

• Trusted Online Sportsbooks
• BetOnline Sportsbook Review »
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