Valentina Shevchenko vs Alexa Grasso UFC 285 Prediction & Picks: Expect More Dominance From the Champ

UFC 285 takes over T-Mobile Arena, in Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, March 4 with an incredibly stacked card. One fight that many MMA enthusiasts are dying to see is the co-main event as UFC Women’s Flyweight Champion Valentina Shevchenko defends her title against the always-challenging Alexa Grasso.

Valentina Shevchenko wants to "leave a reminder" for Alexa Grasso 🥶

"While you are trying to figure out my weak point, don’t forget about your weak point. Don’t forget abut your fears. I know her fears."

Full #UFC285 media day scrum ▶️ https://t.co/sSAfF8vJ2d pic.twitter.com/UX8edbbOIR

— MMAFighting.com (@MMAFighting) March 1, 2023

Shevchenko has been unstoppable since capturing the flyweight gold, rattling off seven consecutive defenses — the most in the title’s history. Meanwhile, Grasso is also on a winning streak and enters the pay-per-view as the division’s No. 6 fighter. Needless to say, this should be a good one.

There’s a lot to consider before Shevchenko and Grasso go head-to-head — especially from a betting perspective. Fortunately, Betting News has you covered with the UFC 285 co-main event’s latest odds, as well as a prediction and the best bets for the fight.

UFC 285: Shevchenko vs Grasso Fight Odds (as of Thursday, March 2)

Odds are via our top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

BetOnline Sportsbook

• Valentina Shevchenko -750
• Alexa Grasso +450

Bovada Sportsbook

• Valentina Shevchenko -800
• Alexa Grasso +550

BetUS

• Valentina Shevchenko -835
• Alexa Grasso +550

BetMGM

• Valentina Shevchenko -700
• Alexa Grasso +450

Shevchenko Overwhelmingly Favored at UFC 285

Taking her streak of dominance into consideration, it isn’t shocking to see Shevchenko has the clear-cut favorite across all four highlight sportsbooks. Her shortest odds sit at -835 on BetUS, carrying an implied probability of 89.3%.

It’s hard to doubt Shevchenko when she's won eight straight fights as well. Her last defeat came when she challenged Amanda Nunes for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight title at UFC 215 — nearly five-and-a-half years ago.

Since then, the 34-year-old Muay Thai expert has vanquished everyone that’s stood in her way. Shevchenko has finished off five of the last eight opponents she’s faced, knocking out four while submitting one.

More than just a striker! A look back at Valentina Shevchenko’s submission of Julianna Pena.

The “Bullet” puts her UFC flyweight title on the line against Alexa Grasso at #UFC285 this Saturday.#UFC #MMA pic.twitter.com/R5fiPUqmUw

— Women's MMA Rankings (@WMMARankings) March 1, 2023

Shevchenko’s last successful title defense came against Talia Santos at UFC 275. Despite Santos pressing throughout all five rounds, Shevchenko stood tall and walked out with the split-decision victory, leaving time to tell if she can make it an eighth this weekend.

Standing in Shevchenko’s way is Grasso, who is on a four-fight winning streak of her own since moving to the flyweight division. While Grasso doesn’t have the finishing prowess of the champion, she’s won three of her last four fights by unanimous decision and one by first-round submission.

The UFC 285 co-main event is also Grasso’s first chance at some gold, so she’s going to leave it all on the table. Having said that, the 29-year-old has to face any truly tough flyweight fighters outside of Maycee Barber two years ago. It’s safe to say that she’s never taken on anyone on Shevchenko’s level.

Still, anything can happen in the world of MMA. While the odds are certainly stacked against her, Grasso is going to do everything in her power to prove that she belongs at the top of the card.

UFC 285 Betting Markets & Trends for Shevchenko vs Grasso

With the odds in this fight being as lopsided as they are, there’s no reason to bet on the Shevchenko vs Grasso moneyline at UFC 285. Fortunately, BetOnline Sportsbook offers other betting marks worth checking out.

When it comes to method of victory, Shevchenko is favored to win at +195 odds. She’s won three of her last five fights by some sort of decision and has an all-time 8-2 record when her battles go the distance.

As for Grasso, her favored method of victory is also to win by points, albeit at +850 odds. While Grasso boasts an impressive 10-2 record when her matchups head to the judges’ table, she’s going to have her work cut out for her this weekend.

Despite winning by points being both fighters’ top victory method, BetOnline Sportsbook is favoring that this fight won’t go the distance at -205 odds.

Method & combo markets offer even more value than the above options. Under this market, Shevchenko is favored to retain her title by first-round knockout at +550. Meanwhile, none of Grasso’s options sit at better than +4100 odds.

Shevchenko vs Grasso UFC 285 Fight Prediction

While an upset would be exciting, I can’t bring myself to doubt Shevchenko. She’s as dominant as they come and I don’t see Grasso challenging her that much. The fact that Grasso absorbs 4.02 significant strikes per minute has me doubting if she can handle Shevchenko’s barrage for that long.

Keeping that in mind, I’m going with a Shevchenko KO/TKO victory at +220 on BetOnline. I can’t see Grasso hanging around that long and Shevchenko has the striking tools to hand the challenger the first knockout loss of her career.

UFC 285 Event Details

When is UFC 285?

UFC 285 will take place on Saturday, March 4, 2023.

Where is UFC 285?

UFC 285 will take place at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC 285 start?

• UFC 285 Early Prelims Start Time: 6:15 p.m. ET
• UFC 285 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 285’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 285?

The early prelims will be available on UFC Fight Pass, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).

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