Covington vs. Masvidal UFC 272 Fight Odds & Predictions

The stars of the mixed martial arts world are taking to Las Vegas this weekend for UFC 272. While the full card features several intriguing bouts, most of the attention will be on the welterweight main event between Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal.

Both men are two of the best that the division has to offer. Covington enters the fight as UFC’s top-ranked welterweight, while Masvidal comes in at No. 6. A win for either competitor will do a lot when it concerns a possible championship match down the line.

With that being said, there’s a lot to take in before Covington and Masvidal collide in the octagon. From general information to betting picks and everything in between, here’s a look at everything you need to know ahead of the UFC 272 main event.

UFC 272: Covington vs Masvidal Odds (as of Saturday, March 5)

All odds are from BetMGM.

• Colby Covington -350
• Jorge Masvidal +260

Covington vs. Masvidal Beef Highlights Bout Background

Max Holloway was originally supposed to challenge Alexander Volkanovski for the UFC Featherweight Championship for the UFC 272 main event. Meanwhile, a bantamweight championship unification match between Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan was supposed to serve as the co-main event.

However, both fights were postponed due to injury, resulting in Covington vs. Masvidal becoming the new main event.

The two welterweights have a ton of history with each other. Covington and Masvidal were once close friends as members of American Top Team. However, the duo has drifted apart in recent years.

Covington previously claimed that the rift began due to Masvidal allegedly being jealous of the former’s rise up the welterweight rankings. However, “Gamebred” has said that isn’t the case.

Instead, Masvidal told reporters in September 2019 that he stopped associating with his former friend after Covington allegedly didn’t pay money that he owed to a mutual coach.

Regardless of what the truth is, there’s a lot of bad blood in this feud. Only time will tell if it’ll be settled once UFC 272 has come and gone.

Covington, Masvidal Enter Fight After Losses in Recent Performances

Covington enters UFC 272 after going 8-2 in his most recent 10 fights. While the two losses have come in two of his last three outings, both defeats came at the hands of UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman, who looks unstoppable no matter who he fights.

Having said that, Covington did impress in his most recent outing against the champion. He took Usman the distance, eventually losing by unanimous decision once that five rounds were up. While the fight didn’t end how Covington wanted, he’s still the No. 1-ranked welterweight fighter for a reason.

On the other hand, Masvidal is on a two-match losing streak, with both losses coming to Usman as well. Although the 37-year-old Miami native took the champion the distance in their first meeting, Usman knocked Masvidal out at 1:02 in Round 2 of their second collision.

That fight was over 10 months ago, so it remains to be seen how “Gamebred” will approach this fight — especially since he accepted it on short notice.

UFC 272 Betting Markets for Covington vs. Masvidal

Even though it’s impossible to predict exactly how Covington vs. Masvidal will unfold at UFC 272, different betting market odds can give us an idea of where things could head.

For example, BetOnline Sportsbook is listing a Covington win via points/decision as the most likely method of victory at -105 odds. That makes a lot of sense considering how going the distance fits the 34-year-old’s style a lot more than it does his opponent.

Covington is 8-1 whenever his fights are decided by decision, with his only loss coming in his second outing against Usman.

On the other hand, Masvidal likes to finish his opponent off quickly and struggles when his matches last the full length. “Gamebred” is 17-11 in fights decided by decision. That translates to a 62.9% success rate compared to Covington’s 88.9%.

Another indication that the UFC 272 main event could be decided by the judges is that BetOnline Sportsbook is favoring the Masvidal and Covington to go the distance at -122 odds.

On the other hand, it’s entirely possible that the fight is decided much sooner than the fifth round. According to BetOnline Sportsbook’s “Method & Round Combo” market, the most likely scenario is a Masvidal first-round victory via KO/TKO at +1100 odds. Each of his last five wins has come by knockout, so it’s entirely possible that this trend continues.

Meanwhile, Covington’s top “Method & Round Combo” scenario is a KO/TKO victory of his own in Round 1, which comes in at +1400 odds. A Covington KO/TKO win in Round 2 comes in at +1700 odds, while a similar result in Round 3 comes in at +1900 odds.

Covington vs. Masvidal Fight Prediction

Even though the UFC 272 main event could go several ways, I think that Covington is the smarter bet. At the end of the day, his fighting style suits this matchup a lot more, especially if he’s able to keep his distance from Masvidal and keep the fight at a slower pace.

In terms of getting the most value out of a Covington win, I like BetOnline Sportsbook’s option of him winning via decision at -105 odds.

Masvidal just can’t get the job done lately when his fights go the distance. He’s 1-5 in his last six matches that have come down to a decision and struggled in his last outing against Usman.

At the end of the day, Covington looks like the better fighter at this stage of the competitors’ respective careers. Taking that into account, he’ll likely be one step closer to another welterweight championship opportunity by the time UFC 272 is done.

UFC 272 Event Details

When and where is UFC 272?

UFC 272 will take place on Saturday, March 5, 2022. It will take place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

What time does UFC 272 start?

• UFC 272 Early Prelims Start Time: 6:15 p.m. ET
• UFC 272 Prelims Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Start Time of UFC 272’s Main Card: 10 p.m. ET

Where can I watch UFC 272?

The early prelims will be available on ESPN+, while the prelims will be available on both ESPN and ESPN+, and the main card will be available via pay-per-view (which can be ordered through the ESPN+ app).