Strickland vs. Du Plessis Prediction, Odds & Best Bets | UFC 297: Upset Alert in Great White North

This Strickland vs. Du Plessis prediction for UFC 297 is brought to you by BetOnline. BetOnline is a market leader in sports betting, offering various options from the UFC to boxing and everything in between.

UFC 297 marks the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s first pay-per-view of 2024, airing live from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON on Saturday, Jan. 20. Betting News is covering the MMA festivities throughout the week, and next up is the massive main event where Sean Strickland defends the UFC Middleweight Championship against South Africa’s Dricus du Plessis.

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— UFC (@ufc) January 15, 2024

Saturday night’s fight marks Strickland’s first middleweight title defense after capturing the gold from Israel Adesanya at UFC 293 back in September. It’s also du Plessis’ first-ever title bout since joining the UFC in 2020, leaving time to tell if he’s ready for the spotlight in Toronto.

With so much to get into (especially from a betting perspective), let’s dive into my predictions and best bets for the upcoming UFC 297 main event.

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis Betting Odds

UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, Jan. 17 at 11:34 a.m. ET.

Strickland vs Du Plessis Moneyline

• Sean Strickland (-140)
• Dricus du Plessis (+120)

Will Strickland vs Du Plessis Go the Distance?

• Yes (+250)
• No (-325)

Strickland vs Du Plessis Round Total

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-225)
• Under 1.5 Rounds (+185)

Updated Strickland vs Du Plessis Odds

Updated odds via BetOnline as of Saturday, Jan. 20 at 10:40 a.m. ET.

Updated Strickland vs Du Plessis Moneyline

• Sean Strickland (-109)
• Dricus du Plessis (-111)

Will Strickland vs Du Plessis Go the Distance? (Updated)

• Yes (+215)
• No (-275)

Updated Strickland vs Du Plessis Round Total

• Over 1.5 Rounds (-225)
• Under 1.5 Rounds (+185)

Strickland vs Du Plessis Tale of the Tape

Sean Strickland (c) — Dricus du Plessis

• Record: 28-5 — 20-2
• Height: 6’1” — 6’1”
• Reach: 76” — 76”
• Weight: 185 lbs — 185 lbs
• Age: 32 — 30
• Fighting Stance: Orthodox — Switch
• Knockouts: 11 — 9

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UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis Fight Preview

As a fight looms between two of the best middleweights on the planet, oddsmakers expect a fairly even contest. Strickland might be BetOnline’s favorite to walk out with the gold on Saturday, but his -140 moneyline odds only carry an implied win probability of 58.3%.

With that being said, it’ll be interesting to see if Strickland can pull off his first successful title defense. After back-to-back losses to Alex Pereira and Jared Cannonier in 2022, “Tarzan” went a perfect 3-0 in 2023, picking up victories over the likes of Nassourdine Imavov (via unanimous decision), Abusupiyan Magomedov (via TKO), and, of course, Adesanya (via UD).

It isn’t as if du Plessis is a slouch, though. The South African competitor boasts a perfect 6-0 record since debuting nearly four years ago and it isn’t as if he’s even come close to losing. After all, five of the 30-year-old’s last six victories feature some form of a finish (5 via KO/TKO, 1 via submission).

In fact, neither of these middleweights are strangers to finishes, boasting 34 KO/TKO and submission victories between the two of them.

Does Sean Strickland (above) have what it takes to successfully retain the middleweight gold vs. Dricus du Plessis at UFC 297?

Statistically speaking, both men are fairly equal. For starters, they’re both 6-foot-1 with a 76-inch reach on top of the fact that only two years separate their age. Du Plessis does land more significant strikes per minute (6.95) with better accuracy (55%) than Strickland (5.82 and 41%), however, it’s the champion who owns the better strike defense rate (63% vs. 53%).

As far as grappling goes, du Plessis does have a slight edge there, averaging 2.72 takedowns with 50% accuracy and 1.1 submissions per 15 minutes. While Strickland does have 62% takedown accuracy and 84% defense, his 0.92 takedowns and 0.2 submissions per 15 mins highlight how he’d likely rather remain on his feet for the five-round fight.

With that in mind, Strickland does tend to perform well when the odds are in his favor, going 11-3 in his last 14 outings as the favorite. Du Plessis is in strange territory as he’s used to being the favorite in his fights, however, he does own a 1-0 record as the underdog in the UFC.

At the end of the day, this could be one of the more even fights that MMA enthusiasts have seen in quite some time.

UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis Prop Bets & Betting Trends

While the moneyline leans in Strickland’s favor, it doesn’t reveal how the fight could unfold. Fortunately, BetOnline’s various prop markets help shed more light on the UFC 297 main event.

The first thing that sticks out is that BetOnline doesn’t see this fight going the distance (+250). It isn’t too surprising given that only one of du Plessis’ 22 previous bouts reached the time limit while a finish has been featured in 51.5% of Strickland’s career bouts.

With the fight projected to go fewer than five rounds, Strickland is favored to win via KO/TKO at +180 odds. Although he has 11 knockout victories to his name, the 32-year-old veteran has only knocked out one of his last eight opponents while notching six decision wins during that span.

As for du Plessis, his top victory method is also to win via knockout, albeit at +250 odds. DDP has proven to be quite the knockout artist as of late with five of his nine career KO/TKO victories occurring in his last six fights.

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For those looking for longer odds, you can check out BetOnline’s method plus round combo market. There, Strickland is favored to win via first-round KO/TKO (+725) — something he’s done six times in his career but not since August 2013.

On the other side, du Plessis sits at +700 odds to pick up a KO/TKO victory in Round 1, which he’s done four times. It’s also worth noting that both of Strickland’s knockout losses occurred in the opening round.

UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis Prediction & Best Bet

Although Strickland is 100% capable of winning, I’m taking du Plessis to pull off the upset. I could see his unpredictability and unorthodox striking style catching Strickland off guard, especially if he could find a way to take the champ to the mat. Strickland has also put a lot of mileage on his body lately (8 fights since May 2021) and eventually things will catch up to him, potentially as early as this weekend.

As for the best bet, I do like du Plessis either outright (+120) or via KO/TKO (+250). He’s been a knockout machine since his debut and his unpredictable strike style could lead to his landing some key shots on Strickland, who suffered a first-round KO loss to Cannonier just under two years ago. If the champion can’t stay on top of things, this one could be over early.

Strickland vs Du Plessis Prediction: Du Plessis wins

Strickland vs Du Plessis Best Bet: Du Plessis ML (+120) or via KO/TKO (+250)

Get 50% up to $1,000 on this pick over on BetOnline

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UFC 297 Preview FAQ

When is UFC 297?

• UFC 297 will take place on Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024.

Where is UFC 297?

• UFC 297 will take place at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.

What time does UFC 297 start?

• Early Prelims Start: 6:30
• Preliminary Card Start Time: 8 p.m. ET
• Main Card Start Time: 10 p.m. ET

How can I watch UFC 297?

• Early prelims: ESPN+
• Preliminary card: ESPN+, ESPNDP
• Main card: ESPN+, pay-per-view

How can I bet on UFC 297?

• All of the top online sports betting sites will have UFC 297 odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for MMA betting enthusiasts.