Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction & Best Bet (June 16): Boston’s Struggles at Fenway Park Continue

One of Major League Baseball’s biggest rivalries takes center stage on Friday as the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series at Fenway Park. The first Yankees vs Red Sox series of the season took place earlier this month, resulting in Boston winning two games to one. Only time will tell if this clash ends the same.

THAT'S A W!

FINAL (10): #RedSox 3, Yankees 2#DirtyWater pic.twitter.com/0Ywn7CWrmW

— Red Sox (@RedSox) June 12, 2023

The Yankees have been alternating between wins and losses over their last seven games, most recently falling 4-3 to the New York Mets in extra innings on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have a bit of momentum on their side following a 6-3 victory over the Colorado Rockies two days ago.

Can the Yankees reverse their fortunes with a win on the road? Or will the Red Sox get back to the .500 mark with a hard-fought effort?

Here’s a look at everything you know heading into tonight’s Yankees vs Red Sox showdown, from the latest betting odds to a prediction with the best betting recommendation, courtesy of Betting News.

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Game Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New York Yankees (39-30, 18-13 Away) vs. Boston Red Sox (34-35, 18-18 Home)
• Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston Massachusetts)
• Date: Friday, June 16, 2023
• Game Time:7:10 p.m. Eastern Time
• Yankees vs Red Sox TV Info: MLB Extra Innings, YES Network, New England Sports Network

Yankees vs Red Sox Odds

Game odds as of Thursday, June 15 at 10:47 p.m. ET. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• New York Yankees -1.5 (+158)
• Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-192)

Over/Under

• Over 9.5 Runs (-105)
• Under 9.5 Runs (-115)

Moneyline

• New York Yankees +102
• Boston Red Sox -120

Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers

• Yankees: Domingo German (12 starts — 4-3, 3.49 ERA)
• Red Sox: Tanner Houck (12 starts —3-6, 5.23 ERA)

Yankees vs Red Sox Betting Trends

• The Yankees are 9-3 straight up in their last 12 road games.
• Boston is 1-5 straight up in its last six home games.
• The total has hit the under in five of the Yankees’ last six games.
• The total has hit the under in four of Boston’s last five games against the AL.
• The total has hit the under in four of the last five Yankees-Red Sox matchups.

Yankees vs Red Sox Game Preview

Even though the Red Sox are coming off a win, those have come few and far between as of late. Not only is Alex Cora’s club 4-8 in its last 12 games, but Boston has also dropped five of its last six games at home, averaging only 3.3 runs per contest over that span.

Meanwhile, the Yankees have produced results on the road, taking home victories in nine of their last 12 road games. They scored 24 home runs during the span, led by Aaron Judge who has six of them. Unfortunately for New York, a toe injury could see Judge remain out of the lineup until after the MLB All-Star Break.

The good news for the Yankees is they likely won’t need Judge to get the better of Red Sox starting pitcher Tanner Houck. The 26-year-old righty is 0-5 in his last six appearances, pitching to a 5.12 ERA while allowing nine walks, five homers, 18 runs, and 27 hits over 31 2/3 innings.

Funny enough, Houck’s last start came against the Yankees on June 10, giving up two home runs on three hits in a 3-1 loss.

Tanner Houck, 95mph Sinker and 85mph Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/QHvu8s5UHE

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 11, 2023

On the other side, Domingo German has given the Yankees some confidence in his recent starts. After recording a 5.54 ERA in his first five starts of the year, German has a 2.20 ERA in his last seven. He’s only allowed 11 runs on 26 hits over 41 innings in those games, allowing one or fewer runs five times.

Furthermore, the Yankees have won each of German’s last four starts, outscoring those opponents 23-9 on aggregate. One of those games came against the Red Sox, where he struck out five batters while only giving up one run over six innings. Following that clash, German is now 1-0 with a 2.16 ERA in his last five games against Boston.

Even though the odds are in the Red Sox’s favor, it’s important to point out that they’re only 3-2 as favorites against the AL East this season. For reference, the Yankees are 5-3 as underdogs against their own division and have covered the spread in seven of 10 road games involving the AL East.

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction and Picks

Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction: Yankees 5, Red Sox 2

Yankees vs Red Sox: Yankees ML (Best Value: +102 ) & Taj Bradley — Yankees Over 4.5 Runs (Best Value: -110)

The Red Sox’s recent home struggles have me predicting that the Yankees will win tonight. New York has proven it can get the job done on the road and is out for revenge after last week’s series loss to Boston. Considering how well German has been performing on the bound, I don’t see the Red Sox mustering much offense here.

I also recommend taking the over on the Yankees’ 4.5-run total. New York’s offense knows how to step up at Fenway Park, scoring more than 4.5 runs in six of their last nine road games against Boston. With the way that Houck has been pitching, I won’t be shocked if the Yankees continue to find offensive success in Beantown, leading to the over on this prop being hit.

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