Yankees vs. Blue Jays (September 26): Is a big night ahead for Judge & the Bronx Bombers?

If Aaron Judge is going to tie or break Roger Maris’s home run record in the next few days, it will not be at Yankee Stadium, as the Yankees and Blue Jays open a three-game series tonight in Toronto.

Judge had five opportunities to hit his 61st homer at home last week, but he came up empty on Wednesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates and in all four games of the Yankees’ sweep of the Boston Red Sox.

He was slated to have at least one more chance last night, but the game was called after six innings due to weather, depriving Judge of an at-bat in the bottom of the seventh.

Tonight, not only could Judge reach the hallowed mark, but the Bronx Bombers could also clinch the AL East title. With New York 8.5 games ahead of Toronto with nine games left for the Blue Jays, a win tonight would give them an unassailable lead in the division.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: New York Yankees (94-58, 38-36 away, 1st in the AL East) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (86-67, 43-32 home, 2nd in the AL East)
• Venue & Location: Rogers Centre (Toronto, Canada)
• Date: Monday, September 26, 2022
• Game Time: 7:07 p.m. Eastern Time
• How to Watch Yankees vs. Blue Jays: MLB Network

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Pitching Matchup

• New York: RHP Luis Severino (2022: 17 starts, 6-3, 3.36 ERA)
• Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (2022: 29 starts, 12-10, 3.32 ERA)

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds

Game odds are from BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

• New York Yankees +100
• Toronto Blue Jays -118

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-104)
• Under 7.5 (-118)

Run Line

• New York Yankees -1.5 (+168)
• Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-205)

Can Judge Get the Best of Gausman Again?

After going 2 for 4 with two doubles in Wednesday’s rout of the Pirates, Judge didn’t have a great series against the Red Sox. In the four games, he went 2 for 11 with five walks and five strikeouts.

Given the level of anticipation and excitement that preceded and carried on throughout every at-bat, it’s no surprise that he might not have been at his best.

In Toronto, he might be able to be a bit looser than he might have been at Yankee Stadium, and that could pay big dividends tonight for both Judge and the Yankees, especially given his career numbers against Gausman.

In 22 career ABs against Gausman, Judge is 8 for 22 (.364) with two doubles, three homers, and six RBI, along with five walks and nine strikeouts.

It also doesn’t hurt that Gausman has not had a good season at home. In 14 home starts, he is 4-7 with a 4.67 ERA and a .308 OBA, and of the 14 homers he has allowed this season, nine have been given up at Rogers Centre.

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction and Betting Picks

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Prediction: New York to win

Yankees vs. Blue Jays Picks: New York ML (Best Value: +105 at BetUS) & New York -1.5 (Best Value: +175 at BetUS)

Whether or not Judge has a record-tying or record-breaking night, it should be a good night for he and the team.

Gausman was excellent against the Phillies last Wednesday, as he allowed five hits and two walks and struck out eight in six shutout innings.

But he has allowed five runs in three of his last four home starts and five times in his last nine home starts, and Toronto is 2-7 in those nine starts.

Gausman is certainly much better than those numbers, but for whatever reason, he has not taken well to Rogers Centre.

Also, of Toronto’s eight losses in Gausman’s home starts and their 13 overall losses in his 29 overall starts this season, all eight of the home losses and 11 of the 13 overall losses have come by 2+ runs.

There’s no reason to believe that will change tonight, and whatever the odds are, the ML and RL are both solid investments tonight. Look for the Yankees to win their eighth straight and clinch the AL East with nine games to spare.

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