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World Series Must Bet Props: Dodgers vs Yankees Game 3 | October 28, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 3 minutes
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Game 3 of the World Series brings the Dodgers to Yankee Stadium, where the stakes could not be higher for New York. After struggling offensively in the first two games, the Yankees are desperate to turn things around at home. With Walker Buehler on the mound for the Dodgers, New York has a prime chance to capitalize early.
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2024 MLB Season: +11.6 Units
Game 2 Write Up: 1-0
World Series Game 3
Juan Soto flipping bat after hitting a ball into orbit.
Yankees (-0.5) F5 (-110)
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Despite how embarrassing and atrocious the Yankees’ offense has been to start this World Series, they’re the play for the first five innings in Game 3. Too many factors point to a successful offensive night back at home against one of the Dodgers’ weakest pitchers.
The Yankees face Walker Buehler, who has low marks across the board on Batters-Box.com, with poor default and current season ratings, along with weak stats in matchup wOBA, ISO, and hard contact percentage. This season, the 30-year-old right-hander posted a 5.38 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Though he dominated the Mets in the NLCS, Buehler’s hard contact rate sits around 45%, and if the Yankees don’t take full advantage of that, they deserve to lose this series.
On the flip side, the Yankees’ lineup is loaded with five elite-rated hitters in default rankings and seven for the current season. In fact, New York holds 10 of the top 11 spots in current season ratings. Despite averaging just under three runs a game at home this season, the crowd should help re-energize this team in this must-win situation.
So, trust the numbers, trust the data, and trust the home-field advantage. Give me the Yankees on the spread for the first five innings in Game 3.
Sprinkle of the day: Juan Soto Home Run (+450)
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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