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World Series Must Bet Prop: Dodgers vs Yankees Game 4 | October 29, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Los Angeles Dodgers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-165
8
+100o
+120
New York Yankees Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+150
8
+100u
-128
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameAs the World Series likely concludes tonight, the New York Yankees seem lifeless, showing little desire to win. Surprisingly, sportsbooks have set the Dodgers’ first five team total prop at just 1.5 runs, despite their explosive offense throughout the series. With struggling Yankees starter Luis Gil on the mound, the Dodgers have a prime opportunity to capitalize and potentially wrap up the series.
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Game 3 Write Up: 0-1
World Series Game 4
Dodgers F5 Team Total Over 1.5 (-135)
Freddie Freeman gearing up to crush another home run in the World Series
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The World Series concludes tonight, and the New York Yankees appear lifeless, lacking any real desire to push for a win. Oddly enough, sportsbooks have set the Dodgers’ first five team total prop at just 1.5 runs. Why? It’s baffling, especially considering their offense has been firing on all cylinders throughout the series.
Tonight, the Dodgers will face Yankees starter Luis Gil, who presents a less-than-promising matchup. Gil’s poor pitching rating stands out, along with his troubling average against hitters: he struggles with ISO, hard contact, and ground ball rates.
Let’s break this down: the Dodgers have been crushing the ball all series, and now they’re up against a pitcher who gives up very few ground balls but allows nearly 40% hard contact. This could spell disaster for the hometown crowd in the Bronx.
Gil has allowed more than two runs in three consecutive starts and has given up over two runs in 13 of his 29 starts this season. If you exclude May—his most dominant month—he’s allowed more than two runs in 13 of his 23 starts. The 26-year-old right-hander has only pitched once this postseason, going four innings in the ALCS, where he allowed two runs on three hits. Before that, he struggled in his final regular-season appearance against Pittsburgh, lasting just 5.2 innings while giving up six runs on six hits.
The Dodgers are averaging 2.67 runs in the first five innings over their last three games. So, what’s stopping them from wrapping up this series tonight? Certainly not this Yankees team.
Alternate Lean: Dodgers (+0.5) F5 (-114)
A Heartfelt Thank You to Our Readers!
To all the dedicated readers (The Sickos and Filth Animals) who have followed my daily write-ups since March, I want to sincerely thank you for joining me on this incredible journey this season. It’s been one of the most exciting baseball seasons of my life. We may have started sluggishly, but we pulled it together in the end.
Regardless of what happens tonight, we will finish up in units, and that’s all we can ask for in a season as long as baseball. Thank you for being here every single day; you mean more to me than you can imagine. Let’s hope we close out with a win!
And now, it’s time to gear up for college basketball season!
Love you all!
Where to find more Advanced Analytics
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a play is worth my time or not.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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