Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction & Best Bets (6/19)

After picking up their first road series win in over a month, the St. Louis Cardinals (29-43, 16-22 away) will look for more road success today as they open a three-game series against the Washington Nationals (27-43, 12-24 home).

The series opener at Nationals Park is set to start at 4:05 pm ET, and it will be televised on Bally Sports Midwest and MASN.

The Cards fell Friday in the opener of their series with the New York Mets, but after being held to just one run on Friday, they scored 13 runs in winning the final two games of the series.

Will St. Louis keep things going at the plate against Josiah Gray? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Cardinals vs Nationals game.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Odds

Moneyline

• St. Louis Cardinals -150
• Washington Nationals +126

Over/Under

• Over 9.5 (-115)
• Under 9.5 (-105)

Run Line

• St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+105)
• Washington Nationals +1.5 (-125)

Pitching Matchup for Cardinals vs Nationals

• St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Jack Flaherty (14 starts, 3-5, 4.64 ERA)
• Washington Nationals: RHP Josiah Gray (14 starts, 4-5, 3.19 ERA)

History Favors Flaherty to Flourish Against Nationals

On May 4 against the Los Angeles Angels, Flaherty had the worst start of his MLB career, as he allowed ten runs and nine hits in 2.1 innings.

Then over his next six starts, he allowed just eight runs in 35 innings, compiling a 2.06 ERA in that stretch.

That solid run for Flaherty ended last Tuesday as the Cardinals fell to the San Francisco Giants at home. In 4.1 innings, he allowed six runs, ten hits, and three walks in an 11-3 loss.

However, Flaherty’s history indicates that he is set for a strong start against the Nationals. In six previous starts after allowing six or more runs, he has allowed 11 runs in 33 innings, compiling an ERA of 3.00. In four of those six starts, he has allowed two or fewer runs.

Also, Flaherty has been better on the road (3.05 ERA in eight starts) than at home (7.06 ERA in six starts).

At home, he has allowed three or more runs four times, his two worst performances of the season have both come at Busch Stadium, and he has failed to make it through five full innings three times.

But on the road, he has allowed fewer than three runs five times, and he has failed to make it through five full innings just once.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction & Best Bets

Prediction for Cardinals vs Nationals: Cardinals to win

Best Bets for Cardinals vs Nationals: Cardinals ML & Cardinals/Nationals under 9.5

Flaherty isn’t the only one who should bounce back well from one of his less successful starts of the season.

In his most recent start, Gray went seven innings at Houston last Wednesday, but he allowed four runs, only the fourth time this season that he allowed three or more runs. In the starts following the previous three instances, he has allowed four runs in 18 innings (2.00 ERA).

With numbers favoring a good outing for both starters, I’m favoring the under here. I’m also favoring the Cardinals to pick up three straight road wins for just the second time this season.

Neither team has had a lot of success when scoring few runs this season, but there is less reason to back the Nationals, who have lost seven straight home games and have MLB’s third worst home record this season.

That is in line with our aggregated MLB picks for this matchup, as 83% of our sources and 82% of the public are backing the Cardinals for the win at the time of writing.