Mariners vs. Rays (April 27): Follow these longtime trends as M’s shoot for series win

After having their first 90-win season since 2003, the Seattle Mariners are off to a solid start as they look to reach the MLB playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Last night, the Mariners moved to 11-6 with a series-opening 8-4 win over the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. It was Seattle’s fourth win in a row, following their three-game sweep of the Kansas City Royals.

Since starting 2-4, the Mariners have won nine of 11 games and now sit atop the AL West. This evening, they will aim for their fourth straight series win as they send Marco Gonzales to the bump.

Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays April 27 Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Seattle Mariners (11-6, 1st in the AL West) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (9-8, 3rd in the AL East)
• Venue & Location: Tropicana Field (St. Petersburg, Florida)
• Date: Wednesday, April 27, 2022
• Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Today’s Mariners vs. Rays Game: ROOT SPORTS Northwest (Mariners), Bally Sports Sun (Rays), MLB Extra Innings (subscription package)

Mariners vs. Rays Pitching Matchup

• Seattle Mariners: Marco Gonzales (2022: 3 starts, 1-1, 3.29 ERA)
• Tampa Bay Rays: Drew Rasmussen (2022: 3 starts, 0-1, 5.25 ERA)

Mariners vs. Rays Betting Odds

Listed odds are via BetOnline. This article may also feature odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

Moneyline

• Seattle Mariners +122
• Tampa Bay Rays -144

Over/Under

• OVER 7.5 (-114)
• UNDER 7.5 (-108)

Run Line

• Seattle Mariners +1.5 (-164)
• Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (+136)

Notable Trends for Gonzales Favors Series-Clinching Win for Seattle

Last time out, Marco Gonzales allowed six runs (two earned) and six hits in 4.2 innings pitched in an 8-6 loss to the Texas Rangers this past Thursday.

The Mariners scored five runs in the bottom of the first, but the lead didn’t last. The Rangers tallied two runs on back-to-back two-out doubles in the second inning, then went ahead with a four-run fourth. Two fourth-inning errors by shortstop J.P. Crawford helped account for the four unearned runs that scored in that inning.

That isn’t the first time that has happened to Gonzales this season. In his first 2022 start, a two-out error loaded the bases for the Minnesota Twins, and the next batter, Gary Sanchez, hit a grand slam to put the Twins up 5-0 on the way to a 10-4 win.

But history bodes well for a strong effort for Gonzales and a win for the Mariners tonight in St. Pete.

In his first start with the Mariners in August 2017, Gonzales allowed five runs and seven hits in four innings against the Royals. In his next start, he allowed one run and four hits in 4.1 innings against the Los Angeles Angels.

Last Thursday marked the tenth time in Gonzales’s Mariners career that he allowed five or more runs in less than five innings. In the previous nine instances, he has a 4.01 ERA in the following game.

Take out an outing on June 2, 2019, in which he allowed ten runs in 4.2 innings against the Angels, and that ERA drops to 2.35 for the other eight starts.

Also, Seattle is 7-2 in the last nine games following a game in which Gonzales allowed 5+ runs. By comparison, they were 3-7 the first ten times in that scenario.

2022 Starts for Marco Gonzales (Seattle Mariners)

• at Minnesota Twins (10-4 L on April 10): 2 IP, 6 H, 6 R (2 ER), 3 HR, 2 BB, 1 K (took the loss)
• vs. Houston Astros (11-1 W on April 15): 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R (earned), 6 K, no walks (took the win)
• vs. Texas Rangers (8-6 L on April 21): 4.2 IP, 6 H, 6 R (2 ER), 1 HR, 1 BB, 6 K (no-decision)

Mariners vs. Rays Prediction and Best Bets

Mariners vs. Rays Prediction: Mariners to win

Mariners vs. Rays Best Bets: Mariners ML (+122 at BetOnline) and OVER 7.5 (-104 at BetUS)

Based on the recent historical trends, which have already played out this season, the Mariners are the play tonight with Gonzales on the mound.

Also, with the total fairly low at 7.5, a sprinkle on the over is a worthwhile move. There have been a lot of runs in Gonzales’s first three starts, and the Mariners have scored five or more runs eight times in their 9-2 run.

Additionally, Rasmussen has allowed at least two runs in each of his three starts, and these two teams combined for a dozen runs just last night.