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Rangers vs Padres: Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (July 29)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Texas Rangers Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-128
9
+105o
+161
San Diego Padres Odds
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
+115
9
-102u
-175
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See Picks & Statistics For The GameThe Rangers and Padres face off in the second game of their lone, three game series this season.
Last night at PETCO Park, the home town Padres took down the AL West leaders in dominant fashion, winning by a score of 7-1. Joe Musgrove pitched 6 shutout innings on his way to his 10th win of the season.
The Padres score 1 run in the 1st, 3rd, and 5th innings, but came alive for 4 runs in the 6th to win the ball game.
Tonight the Padres end Yu Darvish to the mound to go up against Martin Perez.
Let’s breakdown tonight’s game!
Rangers vs Padres Game Information
Prior to last night, these two teams hadn’t played since 2021, where the Padres swept the Rangers in Arlington.
This matchup has been very character building for the Rangers, who have not beaten the Padres since 2018.
San Diego has won the past 9 matchups dating back to 2018.
Surely the Rangers get the win tonight, right?
The 60-44 AL West leading Rangers are just 26-24 on the road this season. The Padre are 4th in the NL West, they are 50-54, and are just 27-25 at home.
Playoff hopes are dwindling for the Padres, while the Rangers are trying to extend their lead on the Houston Astros.
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: PETCO Park (San Diego, CA)
- Date: Saturday, July 29th, 2023
- First Pitch: 8:40pm Eastern
- Broadcast: SDPA/ MLB TV
Pitching Matchup
- Texas Rangers: Martin Perez (8-3, 4.91 ERA)
- San Diego Padres: Yu Darvish (7-7, 4.80 ERA)
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada.
Runline
- Rangers +1.5 (-135)
- Padres -1.5 (+115)
Moneyline
- Rangers +150
- Padres -182
Total
- Over 9 (-125)
- Under 9 (+105)
Rangers vs Padres Prediction & Best Bets
I think we see plenty of offense in this one. Both these guys have nearly 5.00 ERAs, and we know what the offenses are capable of.
I can’t stress enough that the Rangers offense leads the league in nearly every category, but they did get shut down last night.
I’m sure they turn it around today and light up Yu Darvish.
I also think the Padres get to the lefty Perez as well, and I have a couple props that go along with that script.
Let’s get into it!
Player Props
Manny Machado over 1.5 Total Bases (+112) Bovada
Machado has hit this line ins 7 of his last 10 home games, and historically smashes against Perez.
Against lefties this season, Machado goes from batting .257 overall, to a whopping .326. Plus, in 18 plate appearances against Perez, Machado bats .357.
He has 4 singles, a double and 2 RBIs and also 4 walks.
Now I’m rolling with the bases but would sign off on over 1.5 HRR at (-145) if you’d rather because of the high walk rate.
But Machado has a hit in 4 straight games, he’s cleared this in 2 of his last 3, and Perez simply struggles against righties.
He’s allowed 16 of 19 doubles to righties and 14 of 18 home runs this season.
Marcus Semien over 0.5 Runs (+102)
Semien bats first in the lineup, so we’re already looking at an extra plate appearance if we need it. Plus he’s got plenty of RBI guys right behind him in this lineup.
Semien has scored in 60% of games this season, and 62% while on the road.
He’s scored in 4 of his last 6 games, and has 4 runs total in his last 3 contests.
Semien smashes RHP, batting .278 off them this season. And he’s face Yu Darvish before.
In just 9 at bats, Semien bats .333 with 2 singles and a home run against Darvish. He has 3 RBIs, and he’s managed to draw 4 walks.
Because of this nearly 31% walk rate against Darvish, I wouldn’t be surprised if Semien gets on via four balls, and gets knocked in later by Garcia or Jung.
For just over even money, I’ll get a little cute on this one and see if it pays off.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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