Prediction & Best Bets Pirates vs Mariners (5/26)

Two pitchers who have worked their way into the Cy Young Award conversation in the first two months of the MLB season will share the spotlight at T-Mobile Park tonight as the Seattle Mariners and Pittsburgh Pirates begin their three-game series.

For the Mariners (26-24), second-year starter George Kirby (+2000) is tenth in the latest AL Cy Young Award odds, not far behind teammate Luis Castillo (+1600).

For the Pirates (25-24), Mitch Keller has been a major success story and has already equaled his career high for wins in a season. Keller (+1200) is fourth in the latest NL Cy Young Award odds behind Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen, and Clayton Kershaw.

Will we see a pitchers’ duel in the Emerald City? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Pirates vs Mariners game.

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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners Odds

Moneyline

• Pittsburgh Pirates +134
• Seattle Mariners -158

Over/Under

• Over 7 (-114)
• Under 7 (-106)

Run Line

• Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-166)
• Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+138)

Pitching Matchup for Pirates vs Mariners

• Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Mitch Keller (10 starts, 5-1, 2.44 ERA)
• Seattle Mariners: RHP George Kirby (9 starts, 5-3, 2.62 ERA)

Will Keller & Kirby Continue Racking Up the Ks?

Entering today, Keller ranks fourth in MLB in strikeouts (77) and eighth in strikeouts per nine innings (11.1).

Those numbers are nice, but they are only part of his early success.

Last season, Keller’s K/BB ratio was only 2.3, as he tallied 138 strikeouts and 60 walks in 159 innings. This season, he has only 14 walks (in 62.2 inning) and has a K/BB ratio of 5.5.

His WHIP has benefitted from that and from generally cutting down on the number of baserunners he has allowed.

In 70 career appearances (68 starts) prior to this season, Keller had a WHIP of 1.57, having allowed 374 hits and 143 walks in 329.1 IP. This season, his WHIP is only 0.97 (47 hits and 14 walks allowed in 62.2 IP), which is eighth in MLB.

Tonight should be another successful night for Keller. The Mariners are hitting .232 against right-handed pitchers this season, and in games started by a righty, they are hitting just .229 and averaging just 4.3 runs and 10.1 strikeouts per game.

Keller has recorded seven or more strikeouts in eight of ten starts this season, including four of five road starts, and he has had at least eight strikeouts in each of his last five starts.

Unfortunately for Keller, Kirby should also have another successful night.

Kirby, who has gone at least six innings in each of his last eight starts and at least 6.2 innings in each of his last five starts, has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last eight starts.

As with Keller, his K prop is also worth eyeing. Kirby isn’t mowing ‘em down like Keller is, but he has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts, including each of his last three. And the Pirates average more strikeouts in games started by RHP (8.6) than they do in games started by LHP (7.5).

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Seattle Mariners Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Pirates vs Mariners: Mariners to win

Best Bets for Pirates vs Mariners: Mitch Keller over 6.5 strikeouts & George Kirby over 5.5 strikeouts

While the K props are my focus for this matchup, I also have a lot of interest in the RL in favor of the home team.

Of Pittsburgh’s 24 losses this season, 18 have come by two or more runs, including nine of their 11 road losses this season and 12 of their 16 losses in what has been a miserable May for the Pirates.

Of the Mariners’ 26 wins this season, 20 have come by multiple runs, including 11 of their 14 wins in May and 10 of their 14 home wins this season.