Red Sox vs Padres Prediction, Best Bets & Odds (5/19)

In the offseason, All-Star shortstop Xander Bogaerts left the Boston Red Sox for an 11-year, $280 million contract with the San Diego Padres.

This weekend, the two teams face off for the first time this season, as the Red Sox (24-20) visit the Padres (20-24), starting with tonight’s series opener (9:40 pm ET, Bally Sports San Diego & NESN).

The addition of Bogaerts was expected to help the Friars take the next step this season after reaching the NLCS last season. That still may happen, but they are currently going through a poor patch, having lost nine of their last 11 games to drop 7.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West.

The Red Sox, meanwhile, were not expected to be a playoff team this season after finishing last in the AL East last season. And while that may still come to pass, early returns are promising, even with pitching a concern.

Who will strike the first blow in the Bogaerts Bowl? Read on for our prediction and best bets for today’s Red Sox vs Padres game.

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Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Odds

Moneyline

• Boston Red Sox +134
• San Diego Padres -158

Over/Under

• Over 8 (-122)
• Under 8 (+100)

Run Line

• Boston Red Sox +1.5 (-156)
• San Diego Padres -1.5 (+130)

Pitching Matchup for Red Sox vs Padres

• Boston Red Sox: LHP James Paxton (0-0, 3.60 ERA)
• San Diego Padres: LHP Blake Snell (1-5, 4.61 ERA)

Can Sputtering San Diego Get Going Against Paxton?

With Bogaerts joining the likes of Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and the returning Fernando Tatis Jr. in the lineup, the Padres were expected to have one of the most productive offenses in MLB.

Instead, San Diego currently ranks 19th in the league in home runs (46), 26th in runs scored per game (3.91), and dead last in batting average (.240).

Things have been especially rough lately. In their current 2-9 stretch, the Padres have been held to fewer than five runs nine times and have now been held to fewer than five runs 25 times this season.

Everyone isn’t struggling to get the job done, it must be said. Soto is hitting only .227 in his last six games, but he is hitting .339 this month, and Bogaerts is hitting .333 in his last six games.

But they are going to need to step it up this weekend, because it is going to be difficult to limit the Red Sox at the plate all weekend. Boston is fourth worst in the league in runs allowed per game (5.27), but they counter that by being fourth best in the league runs scored per game (5.64).

After losing four games in a row, the final three in which they scored just five runs, the Red Sox got back on track to win the last two games of their series against the Seattle Mariners, outscoring Seattle 21-7 in their wins on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Boston has scored five or more runs 26 times in 44 games, including nine times in 18 road games. And when they have scored five or more runs, the outcome has usually been a good one, as they are 22-4 when scoring five or more runs.

They are catching Snell at perhaps the right time for him, however. He had a 6.92 ERA in his first three starts this season, but he has had a 3.54 ERA since. But a lack of run support continues to hurt him, as the Padres have scored fewer than three runs in five of his eight starts this season, including his last two.

Boston Red Sox vs San Diego Padres Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Red Sox vs Padres: Red Sox to win

Best Bets for Red Sox vs Padres: Red Sox team total over 3.5 runs & Rafael Devers to record an RBI

In his first start since taking the hill for the Seattle Mariners on April 6, 2021, Paxton was excellent against the St. Louis Cardinals last Friday, allowing two runs, four hits, and one walk and striking out nine in five innings. The bullpen let him down, however, as the Red Sox had a 4-2 lead after five but lost 8-6.

This one is a real toss-up for me, though I am more inclined to back the team that is showing a little more confidence at the plate. That said, you never know what you are going to get from Boston on the mound, and I’m hesitant about taking too much from Paxton’s solid return to action, so I’m staying away from recommending an ML play.

At the plate, the Red Sox have scored four or more runs 12 times in 18 road games. That’s where I’m going for my best bet for this matchup, even with Snell seemingly settling down a bit lately.

For a little added player prop betting action, I like Devers, who is second in the AL in RBI with 40, to add to that total tonight. He has driven in a run in eight of his last 12 games, including five of his last six.

Also, the value on Devers to have a multi-hit game is worth considering, given that he has three multi-hit games in his last four games.

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