Pirates vs Brewers Prediction, Best Bets & Odds (6/17)

After ending their six-game losing streak last night, the Milwaukee Brewers will go for a much-needed series win in today’s matchup with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Yesterday, the Brewers (35-34, 19-16 home) finally got back into the win column with a 5-4 win over the Pirates (34-34, 16-18 away). With the win, Milwaukee also pushed Pittsburgh out of first place in the NL Central and now leads the division by a half-game over the Pirates and Cincinnati Reds (35-35).

Who will pick up the win in this MLB matchup at American Family Field? Read on for our prediction & best bets for today’s Pirates vs Brewers game.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Moneyline

• Pittsburgh Pirates -110
• Milwaukee Brewers -110

Over/Under

• Over 8.5 (-105)
• Under 8.5 (-115)

Run Line

• Pittsburgh Pirates +1.5 (-210)
• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+175)

Pitching Matchup for Pirates vs Brewers

• Pittsburgh Pirates: RHP Mitch Keller (14 starts, 8-2, 3.41 ERA)
• Milwaukee Brewers: LHP Wade Miley (8 starts, 3-2, 3.67 ERA)

Will Miley Outduel Mitch in Mound Return After Missing Month?

After three consecutive subpar starts, surprise NL Cy Young Award hopeful Mitch Keller got back on track last time out with an excellent outing against the New York Mets.

In last Sunday’s 2-1 win at PNC Park, Keller allowed just one run, two hits, and two walks and struck out seven in seven innings, and he picked up the eighth win of his big breakout campaign.

Current NL Cy Young Award Odds

• Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks) +190
• Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers) +550
• Spencer Strider (Atlanta Braves) +750
• Zack Wheeler (Philadelphia Phillies) +750
• Logan Webb (San Francisco Giants) +950
• Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates) +950

Keller’s showing on Sunday was a welcome return to form. In his previous three starts, the 27-year-old righty had allowed 15 runs and 25 hits in 17.1 innings. It’s worth noting that he went 2-1 in those starts, but the Pirates are in much better shape when he puts forth his best efforts on the mound.

Of Pittsburgh’s 34 wins this season, 10 have come in Keller’s 14 starts, five in seven home starts and five in seven road starts.

However, if the Brewers are going to put forth a solid performance at the plate, it’s more likely to come against Keller than against a lefty.

Prior to last night’s win, Milwaukee was hitting just .216 against LHP this season, and in games started by LHP, they were hitting only .202 and averaging 2.7 runs per game. On the other hand, they were hitting .234 against RHP this season, and in games started by RHP, they were hitting .243 and averaging 4.7 runs per game.

However, the odds are promising for Keller getting solid run support in yet another road start, as the Pirates are at their best against lefties.

Prior to last night’s game, the Pirates were hitting .240 against RHP and .236 in games started by RHP, and they were averaging a shade over four runs per game in games started by RHP. However, they were hitting .268 against LHP and .279 in games started by LHP, and they were averaging 5.1 runs per game in games started by LHP.

It’s all the more promising that the Pirates will be facing a pitcher making his return to action after an IL stint. Miley spent a month out of the rotation with a lat injury suffered in mid-May, and he will be looking to pitch better than he did the last time he pitched in Milwaukee.

Against the visiting Dodgers on May 10, he allowed seven runs (all earned), six hits (three homers), and two walks in five innings in an 8-1 loss.

If there is a feather to put in Milwaukee’s cap, it’s the fact that Miley had pitched very well at home prior that start. In his first three starts at American Family Field–all three wins for the Brewers–Miley had allowed just three runs, 16 hits, and one walk in 17 innings.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction & Best Bets

Prediction for Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers to win

Best Bets for Pirates vs Brewers: Brewers ML & Brewers team total over 4 runs

Though Keller has been a tough customer to contend with this season, I’m rolling with the Brewers to bag the series win at home. They have now lost four straight and seven of nine, and they have given up at least five runs in each of the seven losses.

The Brewers aren’t exactly thriving themselves. After all, they had lost six straight games prior to last night’s win. But they are a much better offensive team at home, where they are averaging 4.3 runs per game, than on the road, where they are averaging just 3.8 runs per game.

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