Philadelphia Phillies vs Texas Rangers Prediction & Picks: Best Bets for DeGrom’s Debut in Arlington

After calling the NL East home for the first several years of his MLB career, perhaps it is only fitting that Jacob deGrom’s debut for the Texas Rangers will come against a very familiar foe in the form of the Philadelphia Phillies.

The two-time NL Cy Young winner made the move from the Big Apple to the Lone Star State in the offseason, leaving the New York Mets for a five-year, $185 million deal with the Rangers.

Today, he gets the ball on Opening Day at Globe Life Field and will make his 21st career start against the Phillies (4:05 pm ET, ESPN+). Will he and his new team get off to a winning start? Read on for our Phillies vs Rangers prediction and best bets.

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Phillies vs Rangers Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Thursday, March 30, 2023, at 10:00 am ET.

Moneyline

• Philadelphia Phillies +116
• Texas Rangers -134

Over/Under

• Over 6.5 (-112)
• Under 6.5 (-108)

Run Line

• Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-205)
• Texas Rangers -1.5 (+168)

Will Absent Hitters Hurt the Phillies in Arlington?

After marking their first postseason appearance in over a decade by winning the NL pennant, expectations are high in Philadelphia, in part due to the addition of All-Star shortstop Trea Turner, who set career highs in doubles (39), homers (21), and RBI (100) last season with the Dodgers.

But the Phillies took a big hit last week, with slugger Rhys Hoskins (.246, 30 HR, 79 RBI in 2022) going down with a torn ACL. With two-time NL MVP Bryce Harper already set to miss at least a chunk of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November, Hoskins’ injury hurts significantly.

Harper’s absence will certainly be felt on Opening Day, given how familiar he is with deGrom. The only pitcher that Harper has faced more than deGrom is former Atlanta Braves hurler Julio Teheran, and in 52 plate appearances against him, he is 12 for 41 (.293) with two doubles, two homers, and ten walks.

Much of that success comes from the 2015 season, but even taking that into consideration, no one else in Philadelphia’s lineup has had any notable success against deGrom. Turner, formerly of the Washington Nationals, has no shortage of familiarity, but he is just 11 of 46 (.239) with 16 strikeouts against him.

Phillies vs Rangers Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Phillies vs Rangers: Phillies to win

Best Bets for Phillies vs Rangers: Phillies ML (Best Value: BetOnline)

How much better will arguably the best pitcher in the league make a team that lost 94 games last season? It remains to be seen, but with deGrom on a 65-pitch limit for Opening Day, he isn’t going to have the same impact on the result as he would if he didn’t have a limit.

There’s certainly going to be a lot of pressure on the Rangers to perform, as will also be the case for the Phillies after coming within two wins of a World Series title last season.

Not having Harper and Hoskins will certainly challenge the Phillies, but their lineup still has some meat to it, especially with Turner now in the mix. I think they will find a way to get the win on the road and spoil deGrom’s debut in Arlington.