Phillies vs Mets MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/19)

Two NL East rivals will begin their final series of the 2024 MLB season when the Philadelphia Phillies (91-61) and New York Mets (84-68) clash at Citi Field on Thursday. This betting preview is here to help you get in on the action as it features everything from the latest MLB odds to my predictions and picks.

We’re 4-0 when it comes to MLB picks over the last two days, so let’s pick up from where we left off!

2024 MLB Betting Picks Record: 94-106-1 (47.0%)

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MLB Betting Today: Phillies vs Mets (9/19)

Phillies vs Mets Game Information

• Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (91-61, 39-35 Away) vs. New York Mets (84-68, 43-34 Home)
• Venue & Location: Citi Field (Queens, NY)
• Date: Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024
• Game Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• How to Watch Phillies vs. Mets: MLB.TV, Fubo, FOX

Phillies vs Mets MLB Probable Pitchers

• Phillies: Taijuan Walker (17 games/14 starts — 3-6, 6.29 ERA)
• Mets: Luis Severino (29 starts — 10-6, 3.77 ERA)

Mets vs Phillies MLB Odds & Spread

Mets vs. Phillies MLB odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, Sept. 19 at 8:54 a.m. ET. Odds from other top online sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Phillies vs Mets Run Line

• Philadelphia Phillies +1.5 (-175)
• New York Mets -1.5 (+155)

Mets vs Phillies Over/Under

• Over 8 Runs (-125)
• Under 8 Runs (+105)

Phillies vs Mets Moneyline

• Philadelphia Phillies (+121)
• New York Mets (-132)

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Phillies vs Mets MLB Betting Trends

• Philadelphia is 12-5 straight up in its last 17 games vs. the Mets.
• The Mets are 9-1 straight up in their last 10 home games.
• The total hit the Under in four of Philadelphia’s last six games on Thursday.
• The total hit the Over in five of the Mets’ last seven games.
• The total hit the Over in six of the last 10 Phillies-Mets matchups.

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Phillies vs Mets Predictions & MLB Picks Today (9/19)

NL East bragging rights are on the line when these rivals collide in Queens, NY. The Phillies currently hold a seven-game lead over the Mets in the division race and a victory tonight would bring them one step closer to clinching the top spot.

The 2024 season series between these clubs has been lopsided with Philadelphia notching six wins in the first nine meetings. They just met for a three-game series at Citizens Park over the weekend, resulting in two wins for the Phillies after falling to the Mets, 11-3, in the opener.

Although the Phillies have played well in recent weeks, they just dropped two of three games to the Milwaukee Brewers — including Wednesday’s 2-1 loss. Conversely, the Mets head into tonight’s matchup on a three-game win streak after sweeping their series with the Washington Nationals, outscoring them 22-2 on aggregate along the way.

Another thing that the Mets have going for them is that they’re 4-1 SU in their last five home games against the Phillies. Considering how Philadelphia was limited to an average of 1.8 runs in those losses, it’s easy to see how Rob Thomson’s batters must step up.

The Phillies’ batters must break out of their funk at Citi Field if they hope to win on Thursday. 

When it comes to the pitching matchup, it’s hard to predict which version of Phillies RHP Taijuan Walker shows up tonight.

The 32-year-old veteran hurler hasn’t started a game since Aug. 28 as each of his last three appearances came in relief, which saw him allow four earned runs and two homers across eight innings. On the other hand, he just pitched three scoreless innings against the Mets on Sept. 14. Additionally, he owns a 3.60 ERA in his last seven games (35 innings) against New York.

Meanwhile, Mets RHP Luis Severino has been lights out lately. The two-time MLB All-Star is 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA and 40 strikeouts across 38 1/3 innings in his last six appearances. But while he’s 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA in two career meetings with the Phillies, he surrendered three runs in six innings during New York’s 6-4 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday.

Mets RHP Luis Severino struggled against the Phillies on Sept. 14. Will that be the case again tonight? 

Based on how the season series has unfolded, I like the Phillies’ chances of winning today. Philadelphia has owned New York throughout the year and just picked up back-to-back wins over the latter less than a week ago. Throw in the fact that Severino started in one of those losses and it’s easy to imagine history repeating itself tonight.

As for the best bet, let’s take the Over on the 8-run total. For starters, the last six games that Walker has been involved in averaged 12.3 total runs while six of Severino’s last nine appearances finished with the Over on this bet.

Considering how six of the last seven Phillies-Mets matchups also finished with nine or more total runs, running with the Over again is a no-brainer.

Phillies vs. Mets MLB Prediction: PHI wins

Best Phillies vs. Mets Bet: o8 Total Runs (-125)

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Best Phillies vs Mets MLB Player Prop (9/19)

I feel like getting a little saucy with today’s Phillies vs. Mets player prop pick, so let’s take Kyle Schwarber to record 2+ total bases (+134).

After a brief slump, Schwarber has turned things around lately. The veteran slugger has amassed 20 hits, seven home runs, and a .377/.443/.830 slash line in his last 14 games (53 at-bats). He also racked up 44 total bases (3.1 per game) while finishing with the Over on this prop nine times — including in two of his last three games.

There’s also the fact that Schwarber has a pair of doubles and four TBs in six career at-bats against Severino. In other words, I’m feeling pretty confident that he’ll finish with at least a pair of bases tonight.