Padres vs. Giants (May 21): Back Musgrove to outduel Rodon and seal series for Padres

After needing extra innings to decide Friday night’s opener, the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants face a fairly short turnaround in a Saturday afternoon showdown at AT&T Park.

Last night, the Giants scored two runs in the bottom of the ninth to force extras, but NL MVP favorite Manny Machado capped a three-hit night with a go-ahead double in the top of the 10th and then came around to score what would prove to be the decisive run in an 8-7, 10-inning win for San Diego.

With two of the best pitchers in the league on the mound for today’s matchup, a lower-scoring game would seem to be on the cards. Will that be the case, or will there be more fireworks between these fierce NL West rivals?

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: San Diego Padres (25-14, 15-7 road, 2nd in the NL West) vs. San Francisco Giants (22-16, 11-8 home, 3rd in the NL West)
• Venue & Location: AT&T Park (San Francisco, California)
• Date: Saturday, May 21, 2022
• Time: 4:05 p.m. Eastern Time (1:05 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Today’s Padres vs. Giants Game: FS1

Padres vs. Giants Pitching Matchup

• San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (2022: 7 starts, 4-0, 2.20 ERA)
• San Francisco Giants: Carlos Rodon (2022: 7 starts, 3-2, 3.49 ERA)

Padres vs. Giants Odds

Odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• San Diego Padres +130
• San Francisco Giants -154

Over/Under

• OVER (-102)
• UNDER 7 (-120)

Run Line

• San Diego Padres +1.5 (-182)
• San Francisco Giants -1.5 (+150)

Will Rodon Rebound After Rough Outing Against Cardinals?

After joining the Giants this past offseason following a career-best season with the Chicago White Sox, Rodon has established himself as one of the top NL Cy Young Award contenders early this season.

With Max Scherzer now sidelined by injury until at least July, Rodon (+650) is now the second favorite behind Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes (+350).

But he makes his return to the mound following one of the worst starts of his career, which came last Sunday in St. Louis. Against the Cardinals, he allowed eight runs (all earned) and ten hits in 3.2 innings of the Giants’ 15-6 loss.

Rodon went into that start with a 1.80 ERA, so that performance did quite a number on his ERA. Fortunately, it’s still early enough in the season that one outing won’t ruin his chances of following up last year’s 2.37 ERA with another low number in that column.

Last season, he allowed four or more runs five times in 23 starts, and he did a good job of quickly putting those outings behind him. In the starts that followed, he posted a 2.08 ERA, allowing just six runs in 26 innings.

Sunday’s shocker was the first time that Rodon had allowed more than two runs this season, so Giants bettors should feel confident backing him to bounce back well.

However, San Francisco faces a formidable in Musgrove, who comes in with the third-best NL Cy Young odds (+1200), along with Pablo Lopez of the Miami Marlins. All seven of Musgrove’s starts thus far have been quality starts, and the Padres have won all seven games.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction and Best Bets

Padres vs. Giants Prediction: Padres to win

Padres vs. Giants Best Bets: Padres ML (+130 at BetOnline) and UNDER 7 (-118 at BetUS)

While Rodon should have a much better outing than he did in St. Louis, it’s hard not to love the value with Musgrove and the Padres in this spot.

The Giants had the second-best home record in the league last season, so their current home record is fairly underwhelming by comparison. This isn’t to say that they won’t get hot, and when these two teams met at AT&T Park last month, the Giants won the last two after losing the opener.

But other than that series, San Diego has been excellent on the road, winning five of seven series. And with the results that Musgrove and the Padres have put up in his starts, the value lies with the visitors here.