Padres vs. Brewers (June 3): Back Burnes to stymie San Diego yet again

Two of baseball’s top pitchers will duel tonight in Milwaukee as Joe Musgrove and the San Diego Padres visit Corbin Burnes and the Brewers.

Burnes is the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner and is favored to become a repeat winner, coming in at +350 at BetOnline entering today. Musgrove, meanwhile, comes in with +950 odds, placing him third behind Burnes and Miami Marlins hurler Sandy Alcantara.

This will be Musgrove’s first outing against the Brewers this season, but Burnes has already shut down the Padres once this season in San Diego. Will he do it again tonight at American Family Field?

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: San Diego Padres (30-21, 17-11 road, 2nd in the NL West) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (33-20, 15-6 home, 1st in the NL Central
• Venue & Location: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wisconsin)
• Date: Friday, June 3, 2022
• Time: 8:10 p.m. Eastern Time (7:10 p.m. local time)
• How to Watch Today’s Padres vs. Brewers Game: Bally Sports San Diego (Padres), Bally Sports Wisconsin (Brewers), MLB Extra Innings (subscription package)

Padres vs. Brewers Pitching Matchup

• San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (2022: 9 starts, 5-0, 1.86 ERA)
• Milwaukee Brewers: Corbin Burnes (2022: 10 starts, 3-2, 1.95 ERA)

Padres vs. Brewers Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks may also be included in this article.

Moneyline

• San Diego Padres +138
• Milwaukee Brewers -164

Over/Under

• OVER 6.5 (-122)
• UNDER 6.5 (+100)

Run Line

• San Diego Padres +1.5 (-172)
• Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+142)

Will Burnes Shut Down San Diego for the Second Time in Short Order?

Luck–and run support–have not been on Burnes’s side multiple times this season, but they were when he faced the Padres in San Diego ten days ago.

In that outing on May 24, he allowed only one run, five hits, and two walks and struck out five in six innings, and the Brewers did their part at the plate to produce a 4-1 win.

Things went his and Milwaukee’s way again in his most recent start this past Sunday in St. Louis. He tossed seven shutout innings, allowed only two hits and a walk, and struck out a season-high-tying 11 in an 8-0 win over the rival Cardinals.

After recording 18 quality starts in 28 overall starts in his Cy Young-winning campaign last year, Burnes has eight quality starts in his ten starts thus far this season.

Burnes has been better on the road than at home, but he has been much better in night games than day games, so those splits work out favorably for tonight’s matchup. In night games, he is 2-1 with a 1.13 ERA in six starts, while he is 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA in four daytime starts.

Musgrove, meanwhile, is marginally better at home and in day games, though given that all of his splits are pretty darn good, that is more or less splitting hairs.

Season Splits for Joe Musgrove

• Home: 4 starts, 2-0, 1.73 ERA
• Away: 5 starts, 3-0, 1.97 ERA
• Day: 4 starts, 2-0, 1.67 ERA
• Night: 5 starts, 3-0, 2.03 ERA

San Diego Padres vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction and Best Bets

Padres vs. Brewers Prediction: Brewers to win

Padres vs. Brewers Best Bets: Brewers ML (-155 at BetMGM) & UNDER 6.5 (+100 at BetOnline, Bovada Sportsbook, MyBookie & BetMGM)

The Padres have gone cold at the plate and in the win column as of late, though they did actually manage four runs in yesterday’s series-opening 5-4 loss.

The loss was San Diego’s seventh in nine games, and it marked only the third time in ten games that the Padres managed to score four or more runs.

One of those ten games was Burnes’s start in San Diego, and the odds are not particularly favorable that they will fare much better tonight.

The Brewers have been more prolific and productive at the plate at home than on the road, averaging 5.29 runs per game at home (sixth in MLB) and scoring 5+ runs 13 times in 21 home games this season.

Musgrove shouldn’t give too much away, but he will give enough away to tip the scales in Milwaukee’s favor tonight, thanks to Burnes shutting down the Padres for the second time in less than two weeks.

Last night’s game was a one-run win for the Brewers, but there is some value in backing the Brewers to win by multiple runs tonight. Of their 15 home wins this season, 11 have come by 2+ runs, and they have won back-to-back games by one run only once thus far in 2022.

If you want to back the -1.5 run line, the best value can be found at BetMGM, where Brewers -1.5 is +145 at the time of writing.