Padres vs. Braves May 15 Betting: Back the Braves to end homestand with series win

The first two games of the Padres vs. Braves series have not been short on drama–and on runs. What is in store for today’s series finale in Atlanta?

On Friday night, the two teams combined for 17 runs and 28 hits as San Diego outslugged Atlanta 11-6 at Truist Park. Yesterday, they combined for 11 runs as Atlanta rallied for a 6-5 win.

Friday night, 12 of the 17 runs came in the final four innings. Yesterday, eight of the 11 runs came in the eighth inning alone. So, today’s finale has quite a lot to live up to. With a four-game series in Milwaukee coming up, the Braves will hope that any drama today goes in their favor.

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 Betting Odds and Matchup Information

Matchup Information

• Matchup: San Diego Padres (21-13, 11-6 on the road, 2nd in the NL West) vs. Atlanta Braves (16-18, 10-10 at home, 3rd in the NL East)
• Venue & Location: Truist Park (Atlanta, Georgia)
• Date: Sunday, May 15, 2022
• Time: 11:35 a.m. Eastern Time
• How to Watch Today’s Padres vs. Braves Game: Peacock

Padres vs. Braves Probable Pitching Matchup for Today

• San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (2022: 6 starts, 4-0 W-L, 2.08 ERA)
• Atlanta Braves: Kyle Wright (2022: 6 starts, 3-2 W-L, 3.03 ERA)

Today’s Padres vs. Braves Betting Odds

Odds are via BetOnline. This article may also include odds from our other top reviewed and recommended sportsbooks.

Moneyline

• San Diego Padres -102
• Atlanta Braves -116

Over/Under

• OVER 8 (-110)
• UNDER 8 (-110)

Run Line

• San Diego Padres -1.5 (+158)
• Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-192)

Career Splits Favor a Disappointing Day for Musgrove

While there have been 28 runs scored in two games, there are a lot of positives to point out about the starting pitching in both games.

In Friday’s opener, Yu Darvish and Max Fried were both pretty good for the first several innings before things came a bit undone in the fifth and sixth. Darvish allowed five runs and nine hits in 5.2 innings, but four runs and six hits were in the fifth and sixth. Fried allowed four runs and nine hits in six innings, but three runs and five hits came in the fifth and sixth.

Yesterday, Sean Manaea and Charlie Morton both had strong outings. Morton allowed one run, two hits, and a walk and struck out nine in six innings, and he left with a lead. Manaea, meanwhile, pitched into the eighth and finished with 12 strikeouts and three runs, six hits, and two walks allowed.

But things have come a bit unhinged in the latter innings in both games, much to the frustration of under bettors and the relief of over bettors.

How will today’s matchup pan out? Wright is coming off of his worst start of the season and has lost both of his May starts, but he seems to have turned a corner this season after struggling to find success in his first few MLB stints. He allowed six runs, seven hits, and four walks in 4.2 innings against the Red Sox this past Tuesday, but he was 3-0 with a 0.47 ERA in his first three home starts.

Musgrove will take the mound looking to continue a fantastic start to the season, in which he has produced a quality start in every outing thus far.

But history does not bode favorably for the likelihood of that continuing today.

Notable Pitching Splits for Joe Musgrove

• Daytime Games: 40 appearances – 33 starts, 8-14 W-L, 4.95 ERA, 1.293 WHIP
• at Truist Park: 3 starts, 0-1 W-L, 8.71 ERA, 1.645 WHIP

Of course, Musgrove has made a major leap since returning home prior to last season, and this season he is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA in two daytime starts. And the Padres have responded rather well to losses this season, going 10-2 in games following a loss. But those are two notable historic trends to keep in mind when betting on this matchup.

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 Prediction and Best Bets

Padres vs. Braves Prediction: Braves to win

Padres vs. Braves Best Bets: Braves ML (-112 at BetUS)

Wright had a bad day against the Red Sox, and it was his first legitimately rough outing of what has been a breakthrough season to date.

Given his previous struggles, a little doubt at this point is reasonable. But based on his overall body of work this season, there’s reason to feel confident that he will bounce back well from Tuesday’s outing.

The trends actually favor the over for the finale, as the over is 11-6 in San Diego’s road games and 12-6-2 in Atlanta’s home games. But on the balance of things, the starting pitching has been decent, and three bad days in a row for the bullpens isn’t likely. We’re staying away from the total today, but if you’re on it, the under is the better play.