Orioles vs. Red Sox (Sept. 29): Baltimore’s playoff bid on its last legs ahead of Fenway finale

After a win at Fenway Park on Monday, the Baltimore Orioles had every chance to make a serious run at snatching a playoff berth away from the Seattle Mariners.

The Boston Red Sox had other ideas, however, and have delivered a potentially mortal blow to Baltimore’s postseason hopes with back-to-back wins on Tuesday and Wednesday.

With the Seattle Mariners defeating the Texas Rangers last night, the Orioles are now 4.5 games back of the final American League wild-card spot with just seven games remaining for them.

A win for the Red Sox in this afternoon’s finale wouldn’t mathematically eliminate the O’s, but it would leave them needing a near-miracle to make some magic happen.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Baltimore Orioles (80-75, 36-41 away, 4th in the AL East) vs. Boston Red Sox (74-81, 39-38 home, 5th in the AL East)
• Venue & Location: Fenway Park (Boston, Massachusetts)
• Date: Thursday, September 29, 2022
• Game Time: 1:35 p.m. Eastern Time

Orioles vs. Red Sox Pitching Matchup

• Baltimore: RHP Mike Baumann (2022: 11 appearances – two starts, 1-3, 4.32 ERA)
• Boston: RHP Nathan Eovaldi (2022: 18 starts, 5-3, 4.15 ERA)

Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from our other recommended legal sports betting sites may also appear in this article.

Moneyline

• Baltimore Orioles +136
• Boston Red Sox -162

Over/Under

• Over 9 (-114)
• Under 9 (-106)

Run Line

• Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-146)
• Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+122)

Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction and Betting Picks

Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction: Red Sox to win

Orioles vs. Red Sox Pick: Red Sox -1.5 (Best Value: +133 at BetUS)

After finishing fourth behind Robbie Ray, Gerrit Cole, and Lance Lynn in AL Cy Young voting last season, Eovaldi was considered a potential Cy Young contender before this season started.

But he has been limited to 18 starts due to two extended IL spells, first in June and July due to back issues and then in August and this month due to shoulder/neck issues.

And when he has pitched, he has put together great numbers on the road (4-0, 2.64 ERA in 10 starts) but struggled for success at Fenway Park (0-3, 6.26 ERA in eight starts).

Eovaldi has made more career starts against Baltimore than any other team. In his 17 starts against the O’s, he is 8-2 with a 3.29 ERA, and he tossed a complete game against them at home on May 28.

I’m always cautious of backing a pitcher who is returning from a stint on the IL, but given Eovaldi’s track record against Baltimore, this is a favorable spot.

This season, 51 of 74 Boston’s 74 wins (almost 69 percent) have come by 2+ runs, including 29 of their 39 home wins (over 74 percent).

With the ML a bit out of the ideal range, the RL has a lot of value with the Red Sox having a decided advantage in the mound matchup.

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