Opening Day Home Run Best Bets | March 27, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Thu Mar 27, 2025, 14:35 PM
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Opening Day is the perfect time to target mispriced home run props, and a few standout hitters have trends too strong to ignore. Josh Jung and Matt Wallner both have solid matchups, with Wallner owning the highest home run percentage projection on Batters-Box.com for Opening Day. At their current odds, both are worth a sprinkle, with additional value in their hit props for a safer approach.
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Red Sox vs Rangers Home Run Prop Bet
Can Josh Jung go back to his 2023 form?
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Josh Jung of the Texas Rangers is one of the highest-rated hitters on Batters-Box.com. He was one of my favorite hitters to bet on two years ago, and while 2024 was a bit rough, it is a new year and a fresh start. With the third-highest matchup rating on Opening Day, he also boasts a highly rated matchup hard contact percentage.
His trends are too strong to ignore, especially at a 7/1 price. In 20 games with an elite rating, Jung has recorded a hit 70% of the time. His hit prop is available around -150, offering great value for a player just to record a hit. If that is not appealing, pair him with another hitter to get plus money. While he has homered in only 10% of his elite-rated games, it is still worth a sprinkle in my opinion.
Jung will face Garrett Crochet, who allows plenty of hard contact, giving the Texas third baseman plenty of chances to at least record a hit. But at 7/1, the upside of him leaving the yard is too good to pass up.
Home Run Bet: Josh Jung (+700)
Twins vs Cardinals Home Run Prop Bet
Can Wallner show up for us on Opening Day?
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One of my favorite hitters to bet on, because the books always underestimate his props, is Matt Wallner. He may have the best trends on Batters-Box.com, yet he does not even have an elite rating on Opening Day.
For starters, Wallner is projected to lead off for the Twins, according to RotoChamp. His hit prop is set at -135 on some books, and his home run odds are +450. He is leading off!? Odds like that are almost automatic bets for me, simply based on the value for a player who could get up to five plate appearances.
Wallner has the highest percentage chance to hit a home run on Opening Day, according to trends on Batters-Box.com. He has homered in 38.46% of his games with a great rating over a 13-game sample size. Additionally, he has recorded a hit in 69.23% of those games. The odds are too good to pass up, so I strongly recommend at least taking his hit prop or pairing him with another hitter to record a hit for plus money.
Home Run Bet: Matt Wallner (+450)
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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