NLDS: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks: Can the Dodgers Avoid Elimination?

The Diamondbacks are undefeated this post-season, and have yet to play a home game. Read that again because yes, it’s true. Arizona won back to back games to sweep the Brewers in Milwaukee; and now they’ve won back to back games against the Dodgers in LA, and look to complete the sweep tonight in the desert.

Let’s not waste time and get right into our best bets for Game 3 of the NLDS.

Odds via Bovada

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Game Information

Matchup Information

• Location: Chase Field; Phoenix Arizona
• Date: October 11th, 2023
• Time: 9:07 PM EST

Pitching Matchup

• Los Angeles Dodgers: Lance Lynn (13-11; 5.73 ERA)
• Arizona Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (3-8; 5.72 ERA)

Betting Odds

Courtesy of Bovada

Runline

• Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+115)
• Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (-135)

Moneyline

• Los Angeles Dodgers (-126)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (+106)

Total

• Over 9.5 (-105)
• Under 9.5 (-115)

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Prediction & Best Bets

With the Dodgers looking to avoid elimination, they’re going to need better play from their starting pitchers.

In the first two games, the Dodger’s starters (Kershaw/Miller), have combined for just 6 total outs. Now in an elimination Game 3, they turn to veteran Lance Lynn to bring some stability to the pitcher’s mound.

Lynn has been much better since joining LA mid-season. He’s posted a 7-2 record with a 4.36 ERA in 11 starts with the Dodgers; much better than the 6.47 ERA he recorded with the White Sox.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks are turning once again to rookie Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has been less than stellar in his rookie campaign, posting a 5.72 ERA and 3-8 record across 18 starts.

Brandon Pfaadt o3.5 Strikeouts (+100) via Bovada

What you don’t see in Pfaadt’s season stats is how much he’s improved.

Pfaadt was sent down to the minors twice, before returning in late July with some alterations to his positioning on the mound.

Since returning in late July, Pfaadt is 3-5 with a 4.40 ERA and 68 strikeouts (5.7/game), across 12 games. He’s also 2-1 in home games, only having given up 2 HRs in 6 games and averaging 5.2 Ks/game.

The Diamondbacks bullpen has been locked in through the post-season so far. They’ve only given up 11 hits, 2 ER, and no HRs (5 games). So if Pfaadt runs into trouble, we could see the bullpen early.

Pfaadt has hit this line in 12 straight games, since returning from the minors. He lead the minor’s last season in strikeouts, and he’s had 4+ in both games against the Dodgers this year, despite never pitching more than 5.1 innings.

Against the Brewers in the Wild Card, he recorded just 2.2 IP, gave up 3 runs, but still managed 4 Ks before the manager turned to the bullpen.

With the home crowd at his back, and all the pressure on the Dodgers, look for Pfaadt to lock in for his second career post-season start.

Brandon Pfaadt o3.5 Strikeouts (+100) via Bovada

Freddie Freeman 2+ TBs (-120) via Bovada

Freddie’s currently batting just 0.167 through two games in the post-season. He’s recorded just a singular hit in 8 plate appearances, with 2 walks.

This is one of the best pure hitters in baseball, and he’s got a career post-season batting average of 0.291. Last season with the Dodgers, in just 4 games, Freddie recorded a 0.357 BA with 1 HR and 3 RBIs.

Freddie’s so incredibly due for a first inning double, we’ve gotta dabble.

His numbers vs Pfaadt this season have been incredible; he’s 4/6 and he’s recorded a single, double, and home run.

He’s also batting 0.367 vs the Dbacks this year, with 3 HR; batting 0.500 at Chase Field and recording 2+ hits in 4 of the 6 games out in the desert.

With the Dodgers backs against the wall, look for Freddie to respond.

Freddie Freeman 2+ TBs (-120) via Bovada

Arizona Diamondbacks ML (+106)

This Diamondbacks team has shocked people all season. No one expected them to be here, up 2-0 on the Los Angeles Dodgers; one game from the NLCS.

This post-season, the Diamondbacks are collectively batting 0.265, with a 0.507 SLG and playoff leading 9 HRs. Corbin Carroll’s batting 0.500 in the post-season with 2 HRs and 4 RBI in 4 games.

Tommy Pham‘s batting 0.389 and the DBacks have 4 of their top 6 batters hitting over 0.275 so far in the playoffs.

It’s tough to back Pfaadt to get the win here against a Dodger’s team he’s currently 0-2 against, but Arizona’s bullpen has been flawless so far.

The Diamondbacks bullpen has the 3rd best ERA of all playoff teams (1.15) and the only teams ahead of them are the Braves and Blue Jays; both teams with only 2 games played.

They’ve given up just 11 hits, 2 ER, and not a single HR so far in the post-season. If Pfaadt does run into trouble early, trust the manager to go to the bullpen to help lock this game down.

Lastly, the last time the Diamondbacks were in the playoffs was 2017. The last time they hosted a playoff game, they were down 2-0 to the Dodgers in the NLDS; proceeding to lose and get swept.

The Diamondbacks roster may be different, but the fans remain the same. Chase Field should be flooded with fans hoping the Diamondbacks can return the favour in 2023.