NL MVP Odds: Breakout Braves star Riley has high value as stretch approaches

After breezing through August, the Atlanta Braves have had a rough week as the calendar turned over into September. As a result, Atlanta’s lead in the NL East has dwindled to only two games over the Philadelphia Phillies. But for Atlanta to even be in this position is an achievement. Between the loss of NL MVP hopeful Ronald Acuna Jr., a bullpen that is inconsistent at best, and an apparent aversion to being over .500, the Braves looked unlikely to win a fourth straight NL East title this season.

But here they are, thanks in large part to their bats. There is no replacing someone like Acuna, who is one of baseball’s biggest gamechangers. But Freddie Freeman has turned things around after a slow start, and middle infield duo Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson are having career-best seasons. Trade acquisitions Adam Duvall, Joc Pederson, Jorge Soler, and Eddie Rosario have all contributed as well.

And then there is young third baseman Austin Riley, who has fairly quietly put together one of the most productive seasons in the majors. Riley, the Braves’ first-round pick in the 2015 MLB Draft, had shown flashes of his potential in 2019 and 2020, hitting 26 homers and driving in 76 runs in 131 total games.

But this needed to be a breakout season for Riley, who hit only .232 in 462 at-bats across 2019 and 2020. And it has been just that, as he embraced a prominent role to help keep the Braves afloat before and after Acuna went down and is one of the keys to their surge to the top of the NL East.

Second-Half Success Sees Riley Step Into MVP Conversation

Riley had a solid enough first half, hitting .276 with 14 homers and 42 RBI in 88 games. But since Acuna was injured against the Miami Marlins in the final game before the All-Star break, Riley has turned things up a few notches.

After last night’s 2 for 4 showing in the Braves’ loss to the Rockies, Riley has an eye-popping slash line of .360/.410/.657 in 45 games in the second half. And in that stretch, he has the same amount of homers and one fewer RBI than he did in the first half.

For the season, Riley is hitting .306 with 25 doubles, 28 homers, 83 RBI, and 74 runs scored. Where does he rank among the National League’s statistical leaders in those categories and others?

Austin Riley 2021 Statistical Breakdown

• Batting Average: .306 (4th in National League)
• Doubles: 25 (tied for 22nd)
• Home Runs: 28 (tied for 6th)
• RBI: 83 (7th)
• Total Bases: 259 (1st)
• On-Base Percentage: .377 (8th)
• Slugging Percentage: .536 (7th)
• OPS: .913 (8th)
• WAR: 5.0 (4th)

Statistics alone aren’t the only measure of how much of a candidate someone should be. That said, based on those numbers, you would think that he would be one of the leading candidates for NL MVP, right? Well, he is finally making a gradual ascent on the NL MVP odds ladder, but he has some ground to make up to reach the favorites.

2021 NL MVP Odds

• Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres -280
• Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies +750
• Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves +900
• Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers +1000
• Trea Turner, Washington Nationals/Los Angeles Dodgers +3000
• Austin Riley +3600
• Juan Soto, Washington Nationals +4000
• Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds +5000
• Nick Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds +10000
• Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants +10000
• Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds +10000

NL MVP odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Saturday, September 4, 2021 at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Can Riley Make a Move and Win NL MVP?

While the most recent NL MVP odds are still not the most favorable, the fact that Riley has come from well down the list to where he is now in a relatively short span of time is notable. Not that long ago, his odds were in the five figures.

But he does have a hill to climb. The players above and around him have excellent arguments.

Tatis

Tatis has missed over 30 games, but he has put up big numbers, and he is in that group with Acuna and Toronto Blue Jays star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as highlight-reel making stars of today and tomorrow.

Freeman

Freeman has cooled down a bit since getting his average above .300 in mid-August, and there hasn’t been a repeat MVP winner in either league since Miguel Cabrera in 2012 and 2013. But he is the big star in Atlanta’s lineup without Acuna, and there is an argument to be made that Riley is benefitting from batting behind Freeman.

Harper

Harper, whose 2015 NL MVP win is the last time there was a unanimous MVP winner, is carrying the load for the Phillies. His homer and RBI numbers aren’t going to compare to some of the others on the list, but without him, the Phillies would not be in the NL East race.

Muncy

Muncy isn’t hitting for a high average, but he has helped carry the Dodgers while other prominent bats have been injured or underperforming.

Turner

Turner has been productive with both the Nationals and Dodgers, but no one has won the MVP–in either league–after being traded during the season. But he is a prominent piece of a team that could finish with the best record in the league, and he is extremely consistent. He has a hit in 21 of 25 games since joining the Dodgers, and he currently has a 10-game hitting streak going.

Can Riley’s Consistency Carry Him to the Crown?

But Riley is doing all he can to keep the Braves atop the NL East and enhance his NL MVP hopes at the same time. Last seven days? He is hitting .370. Last 15 days? He’s been going at a .380 clip. Last 30 days? He comes in at .362.

Tatis and Muncy have not been tearing the cover off of the ball recently, while Freeman has tapered off a bit recently, with only one homer and two RBI in his last 54 at-bats.

What about surging Soto and the trio of candidates from Cincinnati? Soto is on fire, but the Nationals are last in the NL East, and that will keep the award out of his hands. Meanwhile, Winker has been sidelined since mid-August, and it’s a tougher call deciding between Castellanos and Votto than it is Freeman and Riley.

Speaking of Freeman and Riley, while there is a fair argument that Riley benefits from batting behind Freeman, there is an argument in Riley’s favor. Riley has been a more consistent performer throughout the season than Freeman, who struggled for the first two months. Riley’s only down month was June, in which he hit only. 238.

Putting up big numbers is important, and so is performing at key moments. So is showing consistent value throughout the season. Riley ticks the boxes in all three of those areas. As a result, he presents excellent value as an MVP candidate, whether or not you have bets on others.

Austin Riley takes deGrom deep to give the Braves (+155) a 3-1 lead!🔥 pic.twitter.com/1JcYtkfVwd

— MyBookie Sportsbook (@MyBookieUSA) July 1, 2021

If this is only the beginning of Riley’s ascent into stardom, he will have several more chances. But with his consistency and stellar second-half numbers, Riley is in position to have as good an argument as anyone this season if he finishes strong and the Braves complete their turnaround to take the NL East crown.