New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: Will Berrios Miss Enough Bats to Boost Blue Jays’ Fading Hopes?

It’s do or die time for the Toronto Blue Jays, whose margin for error over the next several days has been whittled down to a sliver. Their outlook isn’t particularly rosy at the moment, but that could change over the next couple of days. It all starts tonight with a game they can’t afford to lose against Gerrit Cole and the New York Yankees. After coming back to win last night’s series opener in Toronto, the latest MLB betting odds have the Yankees at -1800 to lock up a wild-card berth. And the Blue Jays? They come in at +225, with the Boston Red Sox a -164 favorite to lock up the other spot.

The Blue Jays were on the right track last night, as they held a lead going into the fifth inning. But from there, the Yankees scored six unanswered runs to take a 7-2 win. Thanks to the Red Sox losing to the Baltimore Orioles, the Yankees are now two games ahead of the Red Sox at the top of AL wild card standings and three ahead of the Blue Jays.

With the Yankees establishing a little cushion for the moment, it now looks like a three-way fight for one spot. The Seattle Mariners are a half-game behind the Red Sox and a half-game ahead of the Blue Jays as they go for the sweep tonight against the Oakland A’s.

The Blue Jays didn’t get the outing that they needed from Hyun Jin Ryu last night, or from their bullpen, for that matter. Some mound mastery tonight by Jose Berrios would be valuable, especially with Gerrit Cole on the mound for the Yankees.

New York Yankees (90-67) vs Toronto Blue Jays (87-70), ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET

Probable Pitchers

• New York Yankees: Gerrit Cole (16-8, 3.08 ERA)
• Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Berrios (12-9, 3.48 ERA)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Odds

Moneyline

• New York Yankees -112
• Toronto Blue Jays -104

Total

• OVER 8 (-108)
• UNDER 8 (-112)

Run Line

• New York Yankees -1.5 (+150)
• Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-184)

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays odds are via BetOnline Sportsbook as of Wednesday, September 29, 2021 at 3:20 p.m. ET. Want to see MLB betting odds from several top online sportsbooks for each MLB matchup every day? Check out our MLB odds.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Consensus

Moneyline

• 60% New York Yankees
• 40% Toronto Blue Jays

Total (at O/U 8)

• 40% OVER 8
• 60% UNDER 8

Run Line (at -/+1.5)

• 40% New York Yankees -1.5
• 60% Toronto Blue Jays +1.5

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Matchup: MLB Betting Picks, Odds, Stats and More

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays MLB Betting Outlook

The Yankees continued their recent offensive tear last night, scoring six unanswered runs in the last five innings to win their seventh straight. Yet again, Giancarlo Stanton struck a decisive blow, crushing a three-run homer in the seventh to break open a one-run game. It was his fourth game in a row with a homer, and he now has 10 in September and 35 this season.

Not only did the Yankees continue their recent success at the plate, they also got a huge night from the bullpen after Jameson Taillon’s early exit. Taillon’s return from an ankle injury lasted only 2.1 innings before he departed due to complications with his injured ankle. The Blue Jays were held without a hit for the final five innings and didn’t have a baserunner in the last three innings.

This is Cole’s last chance to aid his case for the AL Cy Young. In his last trip to Toronto, he allowed only two runs and four hits in eight innings in a 3-2 win. Cole has a three-win advantage over Toronto’s Robbie Ray, the current MLB betting odds favorite for the award. But Ray, who pitches in tomorrow’s series finale, has a leg up on him in ERA, quality starts, WAR, and strikeouts.

Speaking of strikeouts, that is where we are looking for the best bet in this matchup. Cole has managed only 22 strikeouts in 20.1 innings across his last four starts since a 15-strikeout performance against the Angels. And the Blue Jays have the fewest strikeouts in the league. That said, the under on his strikeout total (7.5) is untouchable, with it sitting at odds of -200 at the time of writing.

So, We’re Looking at the Other Guy Then?

That would be correct, yes. Berrios comes into this start after a 10-strikeout showing against his former team, the Minnesota Twins, on Friday. Those 10 Ks (in six innings) didn’t deliver a win, as the Blue Jays fell 3-1. But it was his sixth straight quality start and his eighth in 11 starts with the Blue Jays.

Berrios has racked up strikeouts with more regularity on the road than at home since he joined the Jays. In six starts in Toronto, he has 36 strikeouts in 35.1 innings. In five road starts, he has 35 strikeouts in 29 innings.

The Yankees struck out three times in 4.1 innings against Ryu and eight times in nine innings, but they are sixth in the league in strikeouts. For the season, they average 9.1 strikeouts per game. And though their big swings more than overshadowed any negative numbers, they had double-digit Ks in their wins over the Red Sox on Saturday and Sunday. Nick Pivetta (seven in 5.1 innings) and Eduardo Rodriguez (eight in five innings) registered decent strikeout numbers. Berrios, like Pivetta and Rodriguez, is averaging more than a strikeout an inning for the season.

Berrios has worked at least six innings in 22 of his 31 starts this season, including his last six starts and eight of his 11 starts with the Blue Jays. If he hits that mark tonight, he should rack up the requisite amount of Ks with no fuss.

New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays Best Bet

Jose Berrios OVER 6.5 Strikeouts

At odds longer than +130, there is a ton of value here for a prop that has an excellent chance of hitting.