Mets vs Marlins Prediction & Picks (March 31): Best Bets for Game 2 in Miami

After some familiar late-inning disappointment to start the new MLB season, the Miami Marlins will look to bounce back tonight in the second game of their three-game series against the New York Mets.

Last season, the Marlins ranked 22nd in MLB in bullpen ERA. Improvement may come this season, but in yesterday’s Opening Day clash with the Mets, a two-run double allowed by reliever Tanner Scott proved to be the difference in New York’s 5-3 win.

Will the road team take a second straight win, or will Miami bounce back to give new manager Skip Schumaker his first win? Read on for our Mets vs Marlins prediction and best bets.

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Mets vs Marlins Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Friday, March 31, 2023, at 8:20 am ET.

Moneyline

• New York Mets -110
• Miami Marlins -106

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-110)
• Under 7.5 (-110)

Run Line

• New York Mets -1.5 (+146)
• Miami Marlins +1.5 (-178)

Marlins Present Good Value with Luzardo

After going 6-9 with a 6.61 ERA with the A’s and Marlins in 2021, Jesus Luzardo had another frustrating season last season, but it wasn’t so much about his performance.

Luzardo missed almost three months and was limited to 18 starts, and in a number of those 18 starts, he didn’t receive a great deal of run support, which is reflected by the Marlins’ 4-14 record in games he started.

As a result, Luzardo had only a 4-7 record despite finishing with a 3.32 ERA, which would have been good enough for 25th in MLB if he had pitched enough to qualify for statistical rankings.

Quality starts aren’t the best indicator of performance, but Luzardo finished with 11 of them in his 18 starts. Nine of those 11 quality starts came in the 12 starts he made after his return from injury.

He ended last season with four consecutive quality starts, one of which came on the road against the Mets on September 28. He was in line for the win at Citi Field, but the Marlins were unable to hold a 4-0 lead in a 5-4, 10-inning loss.

Might we see him start 2023 the way he ended 2022? Last season, the Mets were not as good when facing southpaws as they were against righties.

Platoon Splits for the New York Mets in 2022

• Batting average vs LHP: .246 (.265 vs RHP)
• Batting average vs LH starting pitchers: .253 (.262 vs RH starting pitchers)
• Runs per game in games w/ LH SP: 4.49 (4.91 runs per game in games w/ RH SP)

New York Mets vs Miami Marlins Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Mets vs Marlins: Marlins to win

Best Bet for Mets vs Marlins: Marlins ML (Best Value: +100 at BetUS)