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Mets vs Phillies Prediction, Best Bets & Odds (6/23)

Written by: Eddie Griffin

Last Updated:

Read Time: 3 minutes

Astros vs Phillies MLB Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (8/28)

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Friday, Jun 236:05pm ET

New York Mets Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+1.5

-145

-115o

+113

Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-1.5

+125

-110u

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Three weeks ago, the New York Mets swept the Philadelphia Phillies in a three-game series at Citi Field. This weekend, the Phillies will look to turn the tables, starting with a win tonight with Taijuan Walker on the mound against his former team (7:05 pm ET, Apple TV+).

The Mets (34-40, 17-25 away) make the triple to the City of Brotherly Love after losing two of three at Houston, while the Phillies are looking to bounce back after losing two games at home against the red-hot Atlanta Braves.

Who will take the win at Citizens Bank Park? Read on for our Mets vs Phillies prediction and best bets.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Odds

Odds are via Bovada as of Friday, June 23, 2023, at 10:20 am ET.

Moneyline

New York Mets +100
Philadelphia Phillies -120

Over/Under

Over 9.5 (-105)
Under 9.5 (-115)

Run Line

New York Mets +1.5 (-185)
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+160)

Pitching Matchup for Mets vs Phillies

New York Mets: RHP Kodai Senga (13 starts, 6-4, 3.53 ERA)
Philadelphia Phillies: RHP Taijuan Walker (15 starts, 7-3, 4.31 ERA)

Will Philadelphia Prevail in a Low-Scoring Contest?

When these two teams met at Citi Field to end May and begin June, pitching dominated all three games. And in each game, the Mets managed to scrape together enough runs to sweep the Phillies in a series that saw only 11 total runs in three games.

Walker started the series finale on June 1, making his first appearance against the Mets after pitching for them in 2021 and 2022.

Though he allowed only two hits, one was a two-run homer by Mark Canha that put the Mets ahead in the fourth and contributed to his early exit in a 4-2 loss. In four innings, he allowed three runs, two hits, and three walks.

That loss appears to have been a key point for Walker, given how he has pitched since. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.45 ERA and has allowed one run, 11 hits, and five walks and struck out 21 in 20 innings.

Will his impressive run continue tonight? The chances are high. In his last four home starts, he is 3-0 with a 0.39 ERA and has given up one run, nine hits, and eight walks in 23.1 innings.

While a fourth straight strong start looks to be in the cards for Walker, the forecast is favorable for Senga as well. When he pitched against the Phillies on May 30, he pitched seven stellar shutout innings, allowing one hit and no walks and striking out nine.

Kodai Senga New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies MLB

That start came after a so-so start in a loss to the Chicago Cubs, and he goes into tonight’s start after allowing four runs in 6.2 innings in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals last Saturday.

Why is this notable? In his rookie MLB campaign, Senga has now allowed three or more runs six times. In the starts that followed the first five instances, he is 3-0 with a 2.10 ERA, and the Mets have posted a 5-0 record. Over those five starts, he has allowed eight runs (seven earned) in 30 innings, with half of those runs coming in a single start at San Francisco–which he won–on April 20.

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction and Best Bets

Prediction for Mets vs Phillies: Phillies to win

Best Bets for Mets vs Phillies: Phillies ML & Mets/Phillies under 9.5

While the Mets have yet to lose when Senga has returned to the mound after allowing three or more runs in his previous start, I think that perfect record will come to an end tonight.

Of the betting trends for this matchup, two that stick out the most are that the Mets are 2-9 in their last 11 road games and 4-13 as a road underdog this season.

That latter record is the worst in the league in terms of win percentage, and it makes the Mets impossible to trust in this spot, which both betting experts (60% in favor of the Phillies) and the public (64%) are in agreement with as well.