Nationals vs. Padres (August 20): Padres With Less Value as Heavy Favorites

The third game of a 4-game set between the Padres and Nationals takes place on Saturday night. The Nationals currently hold a 2-0 series advantage with two multi-run wins during the games on Thursday and Friday.

The Padres are heavy favorites as they send Joe Musgrove to the hill. Musgrove hasn’t registered a win since June 16th against the Cubs when he improved his record to 8-0. Since that date, he is 0-6 and has given up 4 or more runs in 4 starts.

Last weekend, these two teams played each other in Washington. The biggest storyline then was. the return of Juan Soto to Washington. Since last weekend, Soto only has 6 hits and 5 of them were singles. He has also struck out 7 times this week.

Heading into Saturday night, look for other forms of betting due to the low value in the heavy favorites. San Diego is -320, so even if you win the bet, the return will not be that profitable.

Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres Matchup Information and Betting Odds

Matchup Information

• Matchup: Washington Nationals (41-80, 22-36 away, 5th in the NL East) vs. San Diego Padres (66-56, 33-26 home, 2nd in the NL West)
• Venue & Location: Petco Park (San Diego, California)
• Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
• Game Time: 8:40 p.m. Eastern Time (5:40 p.m. local time)
• Nationals vs. Padres TV Info: MLB Network

Nationals vs. Padres Pitching Matchup

• Washington Nationals: Josiah Gray (2022: 22 starts, 7-8, 4.79 ERA)
• San Diego Padres: Joe Musgrove (2022: 21 starts, 8-6, 2.98 ERA)

Nationals vs. Padres Odds

Game odds are via BetOnline. Odds from other reputable legal online sportsbooks may also be featured in this article.

Moneyline

• Washington Nationals +260
• San Diego Padres -320

Over/Under

• Over 7.5 (-110)
• Under 7.5 (-110)

Run Line

• Washington Nationals +1.5 (+118)
• San Diego Padres -1.5 (-144)

Run Line and Over/Under

With a lopsided moneyline, we instead focus on the better value bets that will give a better return on investment. The Padres batters will face Josiah Gray tonight, and he has given up a lot of runs.

Most of Gray’s runs have come via the home run. He has given up 31 long balls in 118.1 innings pitched. He may be striking out a lot of batters (137 though 118.1 innings), but his WHIP is still high at 1.29.

This gives the Padres a chance for lots of runs, and the more run support for Musgrove, the better. He is still aiming for win #9, so this may be his best shot at doing so.

If you are going to focus on the run line, take San Diego. They will feast off of Gray this evening. The Padres also haven’t lost 3 straight since the beginning of August. They are the better team, and rebounding from the first two games of the series is a must.

The Over is also in play tonight. It is set at a very low 7.5 total runs. Gray could give up that many runs himself if he has trouble keeping the ball in the yard. Musgrove has also given up runs in 6 straight starts, so that will add to the total.

Washington Nationals vs. San Diego Padres Prediction and Picks

Nationals vs. Padres Prediction: Padres to win

Nationals vs. Padres Picks: Padres -1.5 (-135 at Bovada Sportsbook) and Over 7.5 total runs (-110 at BetOnline)

Avoid the moneyline at all cost tonight. There is no value in the Padres, and the Nationals are a big risk with Josiah Gray on the mound.

Once again, focus on other bets like the run line and Over/Under in order to lock in value before the game.