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MLB Top Props: Hits, Parlays and Moon Shots | April 1st, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated:
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Baseball is all the way back, and I have shifted my entire gambling focus to the MLB. The grind and research are my favorite parts of it all. Going from website to website to find the Stank is not only an art; it is a masterpiece. I hope the season is good for all of us. Let’s get into the filth.
Top Props for Monday’s MLB Slate
Picks in this piece are courtesy of BetOnline. At BetOnline, you can get great odds on all of the top MLB matchups every day.
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Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Check my Action profile on the Action app @cmarchio
Five days into the MLB regular season, I am currently down -2.5 units. It is a long season, so buckle up.
I will only be keeping track of the units for the MLB season. Most of my bets are plus money, so I can end a day going 2-5 and still be up. That is the beauty of baseball.
Top MLB Prop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases (+106) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ BetOnline
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Homers against Tampa Bay Rays
The Stank:
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. comes into today as the #5 hitter on Batters-Box.com. He has a fantastic matchup rating vs Astros starter Ronel Blanco, who gives up a lot of hard contact. Blanco is 88% fastballs and sliders. His fastball is well below league average, while his slider is pretty solid. Guerrero does well enough vs these two pitches for me to feel comfortable taking this prop.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr hit his first home run of 2024pic.twitter.com/hCoieOaBlx
— Chris Gray (@ChrisGraySR) March 28, 2024
Guerrero started the year with four hits in 13 at-bats and one home run. If he gets ahold of a fastball, this bet cashes. Blanco’s fastball is NEGATIVE 10.4. Come on, Vladdy!
Moon Shot MLB Prop: Nick Gordon (+900) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
This is a long-shot moonshot on this beautiful Monday. Nick Gordon is facing Angels starter Chase Silseth, a 50% fastball pitcher. I love attacking pitchers who are mostly fastballs because every big leaguer should be able to hit them. Silseth’s fastball was below league average last season.
Yes, it is normal to have foam coming from your mouth after reading that, but wait. There is more.
Nick Gordon's first @Marlins homer ties the game in the bottom of the 9th! pic.twitter.com/dgIi8dqSGa
— MLB (@MLB) March 31, 2024
Gordan’s matchup hard contact is 56.75%, and his home run/fly ball percent change is 112.0%. Gordon is not known for his power, hence the odds for this play. However, two years ago, in his last full season of play, Gordon, against fastballs, hit an impressive .296, with an OPS of .814 and wRC+ of 141.
If you are trying to play it safe today, that’s perfectly fine. Take his hit prop and add it to someone else you like. Some books have his hit prop set at (-175).
Silly Goose Hit Parlay: Nick Gordon + Alec Bohm Each to Record a Hit (+125) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada
The Stank:
You already know why I like Nick Gordon today, so let’s dive into Alec Bohm.
I love Bohm’s matchup rating against Red’s Starter, Andrew Abbott, which is No. 15 on Batter-Box.com’s overall matchup ratings.
Abbott was one of my favorite pitchers to take advantage of a year ago. He gives up a lot of hard contact, and his pitches are nothing special. He is 50% fastballs, and Bohm has success vs fastballs.
Against Fastballs last season, he batted .319, with an OPS of .792 and a wRC+ of 122. Those numbers aren’t staggering, but against the rest of Abbott’s pitches, the numbers are impressive. For example, Abbott’s curveball last season was well below the league average. Bohm crushes curveballs, batting .385, with an OPS of 1.025 and a wRC+ of 189 in 2023.
Where to find more advanced analytics.
Batters-Box.com is my go-to website to find the best matchup ratings for my daily MLB wagers. It is not the end all be all, but it is always a great place to start your journey into your daily baseball bets. Last season using Batters-Box.com I went up 98 units. Don’t believe me? Check my Action profile @cmarchio.
I also use FanGraphs, Statmuse and ESPN for other stats to help me decide if a player is worth my time or not.
Good luck this season you psychos!
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog, he loves them all.
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