MLB Best Prop Bets Today | April 28, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Updated: Mon Apr 28, 2025, 16:05 PM
Read Time: 5 minutes
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MLB Best Bets: Two young standouts find themselves in prime matchups today, and the numbers are backing them up. Kerry Carpenter and Jordan Westburg both enter with elite ratings, favorable trends, and soft pitching matchups that set the stage for breakout performances. Let us dive into why both hitters are positioned for big days at the plate.
For additional information on picks, props, money lines and more on today’s slate, take a look at our MLB Picks Page or our MLB Odds Page, here.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today, April 29th
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Month: 93-132-4 (+8.59u)
Last week: 19-32-2 (-2.0u)
Yankees vs Orioles Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Jordan Westburg Over 1.5 Total Bases (+145) odds via BetOnline
Can the Orioles bats wake up against Yankees struggling right hander, Will Warren?
The second-highest-rated hitter on Batters-Box.com is Orioles second baseman Jordan Westburg. The 26-year-old has fantastic elite rating trends. In 30 elite ratings, he records a hit 66% of the time, goes over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI 53% of the time, and goes over this prop 36% of the time. However, his home trends are even juicier. In 11 home elite ratings, he goes over this prop 54% of the time, records a hit 72% of the time, and hits a home run 27% of the time.
The young Orioles stud gets to take on struggling right-hander Will Warren, who has the fifth-worst pitcher rating on the day. He has a poorly rated average hitter matchup in wOBA, ISO, hard contact, and ground ball rate. The Yankees starter sports an ERA of 4.79 and a WHIP of 1.26. Warren’s best pitch is his fastball, but the other four in his arsenal all rate below league value, per FanGraphs.
Out of all four elite-rated Orioles, Westburg had the best numbers against Warren’s pitches and overall this season. I do endorse his Over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI prop at -115, but I think there is a lot of value in his bases prop. Westburg missed Sunday’s game against the Tigers with a sore hamstring, but if he is back in the lineup today, I think he is primed for a big day at the plate.
Tigers vs Astros Best Prop Bet
Best Bet: Kerry Carpenter Over 1.5 Total Bases (+120) odds via BetOnline
Will we see some Carpenter magic this evening?
Tigers young stud Kerry Carpenter enters today with the second-highest rating in this Tigers versus Astros matchup. In 39 elite ratings, Carpenter records a hit 71% of the time, a single 58% of the time, goes over this prop 46% of the time, and hits a home run 20% of the time. So far this season, the Tigers outfielder boasts a .271 average and a .782 OPS, with five home runs and eight extra-base hits.
Today, he faces struggling right-hander Ronel Blanco, who sports a 5.01 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Half of Blanco’s pitches grade above league average. The 31-year-old leans heavily on his fastball, throwing it 40% of the time. Carpenter has been putting up solid numbers this season against fastballs and has produced strong results throughout his young career. He also owns great numbers against the rest of Blanco’s arsenal.
After going hitless in four straight games, the Tigers young stud matches up very well against Blanco, and with a better price than he had on Sunday. I think this is an even better spot to back the outfielder than it was yesterday.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd who spends his free time on Bart Torvik, Ken Pom and Batters-Box.com. He has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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